With the Miami Heat closing out the Boston Celtics in game six last Sunday 125-113, they are facing LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. With recency bias abound and online sportsbook still figuring out the proper odds, the best time to place a bet on who is going to win is before game one. Here’s who I like.
HEat +290 To win the series
Betting against LeBron is usually an ill-advised activity and the odds reflect it this year. The Lakers are basically a 3-1 favorite over the Heat and while I think this series will be close, here is the case for Miami. First, the Lakers did not play a team that could make either of their stars work for it. While the Heat’s wing defenders had to deal with the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum and the red-hot T.J. Warren the Lakers never had to face anybody that could really check LeBron. Seriously, go through their playoffs and tell me who was the best wing defender out of the Blazers, Nuggets and Rockets that was not checking Anthony Davis. Jerami Grant? LeBron will still get his points, but it is going to be a little tougher against Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and the Heat’s zone that will stifle his ability to hunt mismatches.
Second: 3-1 odds imply a blowout. This will not be a blowout. The Heat have found some sort of galvanizing agent since they returned to the bubble that has turned them into an interesting young team with a few former all-stars into an armada of long wings who can really defend and dead-eye shooters. The Heat have guys to check LeBron and Davis, and I would be shocked if it isn’t at least 1-1 after two. That means these odds will change and likely go down. If you believe in the Heat, then now is the time to jump on it.
