When it comes to fantasy football, everyone likes to search ferociously for diamonds in the rough. However, it is equally imperative that fantasy managers identify which players could be quite hazardous.
Let’s take a look at 10 players to avoid in your upcoming draft.
Note: this article uses ADP based on half-PPR scoring, but the general point (avoid these players!) applies to all formats.
Mike Evans (ADP: 36)
Evans offers plenty of allure, and for good reason. After all, he’s playing in a Super Bowl-winning offense that is captained by none other than Tom Brady. However, Evans has also shown plenty of inconsistency, particularly in 2020. Last season, he just barely reached four digits in terms of yardage, posting 70 catches for 1,006 yards and 13 touchdowns. That’s not bad by any means, nor is his impressive touchdown total. However, Evans was simply too inconsistent. He finished with less than 8.4 fantasy points in six of 16 games last season, and that doesn’t include the game in which he caught two passes for two yards. (He salvaged this effort by finding the end zone twice.) At his current ADP, Evans should be avoided in favor of someone with a much safer floor, such as Robert Woods or teammate Chris Godwin.
Loading…#### Miles Sanders (ADP: 37)
Miles Sanders is a household name despite the fact that he has never surpassed 910 scrimmage yards in a single season. Now, he’s playing under a new coaching regime. While the old Philadelphia brass hand-picked Sanders out of college, the new group has no ties to the 24-year-old. They do, however, have ties to fifth-round pick Kenneth Gainwell, whose impressive receiving ability allowed him to stand out at Memphis. Meanwhile, don’t forget about the presence of Boston Scott, who could steal half of Sanders’s touches this season. Does Sanders, a Penn State product, have low-end RB2 potential? Sure. Still, his upside is capped after a mediocre-at-best training camp showing. At his current ADP, it is best to avoid Sanders altogether and instead pursue someone like James Robinson, Darrell Henderson, or Myles Gaskin.
RELATED: Pickard’s Fantasy Draft Rankings
Kyle Pitts (ADP: 47)
Kyle Pitts is a generational prospect who redefined the tight end position during the draft process. Tight ends’ workloads are generally limited during their rookie season. Both of these can be true, yet one paints a much better short-term projection than the other. While Pitts has the potential to be the TE1 in fantasy someday, there is very little historical evidence that points in the first-round pick’s favor this year. If you’re completing a rookie draft, feel free to take the Florida product in the first half of the first round. However, in redraft formats, stay away from Pitts at his current ADP. Instead, look for a safer option like T.J. Hockenson, who is being drafted nine spots lower. Even Mark Andrews, whom I consistently have frowned upon this year, is a more intriguing option than Atlanta’s newcomer.
Chase Edmonds (ADP: 62)
Putting Edmonds in high-end FLEX territory seems absurd. Even crazier is the fact that he is being drafted second-highest among backup running backs (Kareem Hunt). That’s right: you’d have to spend a higher draft pick on Edmonds than someone like Damien Harris or Ronald Jones. While Edmonds’ stock rose this offseason due to Kliff Kingsbury calling him a potential “lead running back,” that term frequently gets misconstrued, which was the case here. Don’t overlook the fact that James Conner, who is a much better option on the ground and in the red zone, joined the team. While Edmonds is a valuable receiving and mismatch threat, Conner will likely lead all of Arizona’s running backs in rushes and scores. Long story short, you should absolutely avoid Edmonds at his current ADP.
Ja’Marr Chase (ADP: 68)
You would be wise to steer clear of Chase at his current price tag. The draft’s No. 5 overall pick caught one of five targets during the preseason, adding three drops along the way. When evaluating the rookie’s performance, it’s impossible not to remember the disappointing tenure of fellow Bengals first-round pick John Ross III, whose game-changing speed had fantasy managers salivating. Chase boasts similar talent, but he has struggled this summer after not appearing in a college game since 2019. While it is far too early to even whisper the word “bust” when discussing Chase, you should still resort to someone else when looking for receivers around this draft position in 2021.
Michael Thomas (ADP: 73)
Some fantasy managers might think Thomas is an incredible stash for the back half of the season. They might be right, but spending an early seventh-round pick on him is a foolish move. Thomas missed most of 2020 and never hauled in a touchdown pass. Now, he’s expected to miss at least the first half of the 2021 season, and there’s no guarantee that he will be healthy or effective if he does return this year. If someone else wants to take a risk and reach for Thomas in hopes of being rewarded with a potential breakout, tip your cap and bid them good luck. However, you should not be the fantasy manager who falls into that trap. There are exponentially safer options out there that can be even more effective while playing the entire season.
Jalen Hurts (ADP: 94)
Sometimes, you have to pass on high-upside players because the floor is far too dangerous. Jalen Hurts is a perfect example of this. Heading into his second season with the Philadelphia Eagles (and first as the clear starting quarterback), Hurts offers incredible upside as both a rusher and passer. However, he showed poor decision-making skills last season and it’s possible that defenses will catch on to his tendencies now that they have had time to prepare for the Alabama product. His current ADP puts him inside the top-12 quarterback tier, which is too dangerous, especially considering his small sample size. You need to be uber-confident in your QB1, and you can’t feel that way about Hurts.
David Johnson (ADP: 101)
Picture this: you’re having a near-perfect draft after going running back heavy early on, snagging two very strong wideouts, adding a top-eight quarterback and tight end in the next two rounds, and then building depth at running back and wide receiver. Then, with your ninth-round pick, you draft the third-string running back on the worst offense in football. Sounds like a nightmare, right? This horrendous daydream could become a reality if you draft David Johnson. With Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram battling for starting job, Johnson—who was the lead back last year—is nestled into a depth role. Furthermore, this Texans offense is going to be horrendous without Watson at the helm in 2021. If you’re going to draft a Houston playmaker, look for Lindsay or Brandin Cooks. Otherwise, stay away, especially in the middle rounds.
Deshaun Watson (ADP: 165)
This one needs very little explanation. Watson is not going to start another game for the Texans due to his adamant stance surrounding a trade request. He won’t start for any of the other 31 teams, either, due to an ongoing legal situation centered around accusations of sexual assault. By spending a pick on Watson in redraft leagues, you’re wasting an asset that could have been used on a potential league-winner elsewhere.
Jared Cook (ADP: 178)
When you’re this deep into drafts, it’s hard to justify a pick as absolutely terrible. While Cook isn’t an awful selection, he feels out of place with an ADP similar to players like Gerald Everett, Adam Trautman, and Blake Jarwin. He has found the end zone 22 times over the last three seasons, but Cook is now on a new team and there’s no guarantee that he will acclimate quickly. Meanwhile, Donald Parham Jr., who showed flashes of potential as a rookie last year, has already spent one season alongside Justin Herbert. Cook is going to significantly lose targets as the year goes on. You should probably avoid him in most formats.
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