S&P 500 took a little breather, and sideways trading with a bullish slant goes on unchecked. Credit markets have partially turned, and I‘m looking for some risk appetite returning to HYG and VTV. Any modest improvement in market breadth would thus underpin stocks, and not even my narrow overnight downswing target of yesterday may be triggered. The banking sector is internally strong and resilient, which makes the bulls the more favored party than if judged by looking at the index price action only. Consumer discretionaries outperformance of staples confirms that too.
Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
When it comes to gold and silver:
(…) Faced with the dog and pony debt ceiling show, precious metals dips are being bought – and relatively swiftly. What I‘m still looking for to kick in to a greater degree than resilience to selling attempts, is the commodities upswing that would help base metals and energy higher. These bull runs are far from over – it ain‘t frothy at the moment as the comparison of several oil stocks reveals.
Precious metals dip has been swiftly reversed, and it‘s just oil and copper that can cause short-term wrinkles. Both downswings look as seriously overdone, and more of a reaction to resilient dollar than anything else. In this light, gold and silver surge is presaging renewed commodities run, which is waiting for the greenback to roll over (first). And that looks tied to fresh debt issuance and debt ceiling resolution – Dec is almost knocking on the door while inflation expectations are about to remain very elevated.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
S&P 500 bulls continue holding the upper hand, and yesterday‘s rising volume isn‘t a problem in the least. Dips remain to be bought, and it‘s all a question of entry point and holding period.
Credit Markets
Credit markets stabilization is approaching, and yields don‘t look to be holding S&P 500, Russell 2000 or emerging markets down for too long. Especially the EEM performance highlights upcoming dollar woes.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold and silver decline was promptly reversed, and the lower volume isn‘t an immediate problem – it merely warns of a little more, mostly sideways consolidation before another push higher. PMs bull run is on!
Crude Oil
Crude oil bulls could very well be capitulating here – yesterday‘s downswing was exaggerated any way examined. Better days in oil are closer than generally appreciated.
Copper
The copper setback got likewise extended, and the underperformance of both CRB Index and other base metals is a warning sign. One that I‘m not taking as seriously – the red metal is likely to reverse higher, and start performing along the lines of other commodities.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin and Ethereum bears may be slowing down here, but I wouldn‘t be surprised if the selling wasn‘t yet over. We‘re pausing at the moment, and in no way topping out.
Summary
S&P 500 bulls keep banishing the shallow correction risks, leveling the very short-term playing field. The credit markets non-confirmation is probably in its latter stages, and stock market internals favor the slow grind higher to continue. Precious metals remain my top pick over the coming weeks, and these would be followed by commodities once the dollar truly stalls.
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Thank you,
Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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