By Nicholas Earl
The UK’s electricity supply could be tight at times this winter but there should be sufficient supplies to meet demand, revealed the body tasked with balancing the country’s grid.
In its latest report ahead of winter, the National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (NGESO) has forecast that margins might narrow significantly towards the very end of the year, however it expects there will be sufficient power to keep the lights on.
It said: “We expect there to be sufficient available capacity to respond to these market signals to meet consumer demand.”
NGESO’s operational modelling indicates tight periods are most likely to occur in the first half of December.
The National Grid has to ensure it has enough electricity generators online when demand for electricity peaks, meaning it has to maintain a margin above forecast demand to deal with any short spikes.
If the margin falls below certain levels, NGESO will send out a so-called Electricity Margin Notice (EMN).
This lets generators know that more electricity is needed.
NGESO has revealed it might need to use the EMNs this winter to ensure supply is stable.
It said: “We may need to use our standard operational tools to manage these periods should they occur which, for example, may mean issuing EMNs.”
The group also explained it is working closely with transmission owners to minimise the impact of network outages this winter, in case they should arise.
While supplies are hopefully secure this winter, NGESO has warned that Europe’s dependence on Russian gas means that “cessation of flows of gas into Europe could have knock-on impacts.”
This includes very high wholesale costs, with the latest forecast from Cornwall Insight predicting the consumer price cap will climb to £3,500 per year in October.
Meanwhile, NGESO has worked with the Government to ensure that four coal power stations are still ready to use if they need to be called on this winter – they are working on a fifth, which is being operated by Uniper.
It is also “exploring options” to incentivise energy users to reduce their use during peak times, as first reported in The Times last month.
The post Energy supplies will be tight this winter, warns National Grid’s system operator appeared first on CityAM.
