By Michiel Willems
Prolonged political chaos looms in Kenya as opposition leader Raila Odinga, the establishment’s favourite, declared this afternoon that he will not accept the official outcome of the 2022 presidential election.
Yesterday, Kenya’s electoral committee said William Ruto won the election, which took place a week ago.
However, Ruto’s opponent, Odinga, stated today that “a violation of Kenya’s laws and constitution” has taken place and “the laws of the country have been breached.”
Odinga singled out four electoral committee members, who walked out minutes before the result was announced as they said they ‘disowned’ the result.
Nevertheless, the chairman of the electorial committee went ahead and called Ruto the winner after nearly a week of vote counting.
Odinga’s statement today means the country is thrown into further political turmoil.
“I want everyone to remain calm and no one can take the law into their own hands,” he told a packed auditorium in Nairobi this afternoon.
“Justice will prevail.”
Opposition leader Raila Odinga, who is backed by the outgoing president and seen as the establishment candidate, faced deputy president William Ruto, who styles himself as an outsider and a “hustler”.
President-elect Ruto, addressing the crowd last night, applauded the “great work of the electoral committee” and said they are “the real winners.”
Following the announcement of Ruto’s win, thousands took to the street to celebrate the ‘Hustler’s’ victory, while many others expressed their anger and frustration, resulting in riots and road blocks.
Uncertain weeks ahead
East Africa is now holding its breath as legal proceedings now await the region’s largest nation.
Historically, candidates fight on even after formal results have been announced, with riots, court proceedings and fraud allegations usually flying high.
Both Odinga and Ruto polled for days at 50 per cent of the vote most of last week, but the IBC confirmed yesterday Ruto took a slight lead and ultimately called him the winner of the 2022 presidential election.
By law, results had to be announced within one week after the election, so before midnight tomorrow.
To win outright, a candidate needed more than half of all votes and at least 25 per cent of the votes in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties.
Scuffles and fraud allegations
Since last week an extremely close race had unfolded between the two main candidates for the presidency, with millions of Kenyans holding their breath.
In the runup to yesterday’s announcement, several standoffs and scuffles broke out across the country, primarily at polling stations and mostly disputes over vote counting and submitted or incomplete ballot papers.
Also, allegations and statements of elections fraud are flying high with several prominent politicians taking to social media to make wild, unverified claims.
More than 22m registered voters had the chance to endorse their favourite candidates in 46,232 polling stations across the country last week.
However, fewer Kenyans voted. Turnout was just under 60 per cent as polls closed with some voters citing little hope of real change.
Regional powerhouse
Last week’s election was considered close but calm.
This is partly because economic issues such as widespread corruption and rising cost of living were of greater importance than the ethnic tensions that have marked past votes with sometimes deadly results.
Kenya is a standout with its relatively democratic system in a region where some leaders are notorious for clinging to power for decades.
Its stability is crucial for foreign investors, the most humble of street vendors and troubled neighbours like Ethiopia and Somalia.
2007 election violence
Elections can be exceptionally troubled, as in 2007 when the country exploded after Mr Odinga claimed the vote had been stolen from him and more than 1,000 people were killed.
Mr Ruto was indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity for his role in the violence, but his case was terminated amid allegations of witness tampering.
In 2017, the high court overturned the election results, a first in Africa, after Mr Odinga challenged them over irregularities.
He boycotted the new vote and proclaimed himself the “people’s president”, bringing allegations of treason. A public handshake between him and Mr Kenyatta calmed the crisis.
This is likely Odinga’s last try. Mr Ruto and Mr Odinga have said they will accept the official results — if the vote is free and fair.
“It is every Kenyan’s hope,” the president told journalists on Tuesday.
Rising food prices
Rising food and fuel prices, debt at 67 per cent of GDP, youth unemployment at 40 per cent and corruption put economic issues at the centre of an election in which unregulated campaign spending highlighted the country’s inequality.
The top candidates were Raila Odinga, a democracy campaigner who has vied for the presidency for a quarter-century, and 55-year-old Deputy President William Ruto, who had stressed his journey from a humble childhood to appeal to struggling Kenyans long accustomed to political dynasties.
To win outright, a candidate needed more than half of all votes and at least 25 per cent of the votes in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties.
End of Kenyatta era
Outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Kenya’s first president, cut across the usual ethnic lines and angered Ruto by backing long-time rival Mr Odinga after their bitter 2017 election contest.
But both Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto picked running mates from the country’s largest ethnic group, the Kikuyu.
Mr Odinga, 77, made history by choosing running mate Martha Karua, a former justice minister and the first woman to be a leading contender for the deputy presidency.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission estimated that final turnout would be above 60 per cent, far lower than the 80 per cent in the 2017 election. That would make it Kenya’s lowest turnout in 15 or even 20 years.
The electoral commission signed up less than half of the new voters it had hoped for, just 2.5m.
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