S&P 500 didn‘t swing even temporarily higher yesterday, refusing to act on relatively bullish signs from bonds. No turnaround, Nasdaq was also flat – and the volume declined in both. Fresh sellers wanted, nowhere to be found. Well, commodities had a good day, driven by crude oil‘s sharp reversal on Muhammad bin Salman‘s words about potentially reducting output, which the paper markets promptly got. Acricultural stocks also started doing better – ADM, BG, DBA, and the like including CORN.
Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Yet, copper‘s sharp upswing was rejected at $3.73, as it the bulls were unwilling to run too far, too fast. Cryptos not following though entirely on the bullish cues – Ethereum short profits taken off the table – means that we‘re in for a relatively muted upswing (attempt) in stocks. Until the Jackson Hole uncertainty is removed, that is. Given that I look for VIX to remain in the 22.50 – 24 range today, it means a relatively narrow range in the S&P 500 ahead.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is on a tear, and I look for it to be well bid. Given the run‘s confirmation by oil stocks, that says a lot about stock market prospects (bearish as oil is the shadow Fed funds rate).
Copper
Copper is starting to hesitate, and unless $3.74 is broken, has a lot of potential to correct recent strength. Other base metals appear to agree.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Cryptos are still hesitating, and I am not looking for surprising moves either way today.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
