By Nicholas Earl
No country in the G20 is decarbonising quickly enough to maintain a safe climate, according to new analysis from PWC.
The analyst’s latest Net Zero Economy Index reveals that progress on decarbonisation is falling alarmingly short of what is required to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, in line with the Paris Agreement.
Instead, nine of the 20 major economies have reported increases over the last year, which has ramped up the required decarbonisation rate to historically rapid levels.
Last year’s index calculated that a global decarbonisation rate of 12.9 per cent was required to meet global climate goals over the next three decades.
However in 2021, the global average for decarbisation 0.5 per cent, while the average in the G20 was just 0.2 per cent, its lowest level for two decades.
This has pushed the average global rate of decarbonisation now needed to 15.2 per cent year-on-year to meet the climate goals adopted in the Paris Agreement and endorsed at COP26 last year.
The G20 is responsible for 80 per cent of global emissions, and includes the UK in its membership.
In the UK, the decarbonisation rate was 1.5 per cent, making it the eighth best performing country in the G20.
This has slowed from 6.5 per cent the previous year, largely as a result of the economy rebounding from the impact of the pandemic.
This ambitious rate is 11 times faster than the global average achieved over the past two decade.
It is further complicated by the current geopolitical and economic context, leading to real risk on future progress towards emissions reduction.
The report notes that there is no single pathway to Net Zero with each country moving at a different pace by different means.
Ultimately however, all nations must accelerate action, with a pressing need to reduce global carbon intensity by 77 per cent by 2030.
While policy makers are under pressure to ensure a secure and affordable energy supply, PWC believes there is an opportunity to use disruptors to strengthen the business case for net zero investment.
The rise in energy prices and threats to supply has created a rush to fossil fuels in the short term, but that PWC strengthens the case for investment in renewable energy capacity for the long term.
Similarly, it believes the financial case for energy efficiency has strengthened, especially in high energy-consuming and hard to abate sectors.
Businesses will be looking at ways to consume less, while using energy more effectively, signalling a possible turning point in how we think about energy.
Dan Dowling, Partner, Net Zero, Cities & Sustainability, PwC UK, said: “The world is falling alarmingly short of the rate of decarbonisation required if we are to stand any chance of meeting the IPCC’s 2030 deadline to reduce emissions by 43 per cent. Nations must make radical changes to both their energy mix and their energy usage. This will lead to resilient and affordable energy; a clean and productive economic landscape, and a healthy society. However, if we fail, the costs of adapting to climate change will continue to increase.”
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