Some S&P 500 buying emerged finally, and not even Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) earnings ushered in a significant move either way. This summary of four key ES_F levels for today, holds true – I‘m not expecting a sizable move in stocks on this options expiry Friday – that would happen next week and especially as we approach Jan FOMC with the newly even more favored 25bp over 50bp as per futures markets.
Make no mistake though, the headwinds are to intensify as the recessionary pressures grow in intensity in the months ahead. See earnings and profit margins in the context of strong job market and commodities pricing (especially oil). I stand by my call that the Fed would have to tighten into the 5.50% Fed funds rate area as per its model, as they redefine what‘s a restrictive level.
Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Gold, Silver and Miners
Similarly to coppper holding up well, so do precious metals. Quoting my yesterday‘s words – „The upper knots may look intimidating, but gold is likely to hold up relatively well.“ And so it did and does, including the call that no silver decline below $22.60 seems to be imminent.
Crude oil keeps fighting around $81 – and doing well there. Modest appreciation expected next - $88 area will be a tough nut to crack.
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