By Ilaria Grasso Macola
China is set to be the engine for global aviation’s recovery after its reopening from Covid restrictions, with 44,500 new planes set to be delivered in the next 20 years.
Data published today by aviation analytics firm Cirium shows the planes will be made in order to meet a 3.6 per cent annual passenger travel growth globally.
Worth $2.9 trillion (£2.4 trillion), the orders will be mainly driven by China’s post-Covid reopening, as Beijing is expected to have the highest passenger growth rate at six per cent per year.
The country is also set to account for 19 of the total 22 per cent of the region’s plane deliveries.
North America and Europe will follow suit, taking respectively 21 and 17 per cent of all deliveries.
“The new Cirium fleet forecast shows a positive long-term outlook for aviation,” said Cirium’s head of consultancy Rob Morris.
“The industry is undergoing structural changes, but remains on course to return to traditional growth paths by 2025.”
According to recent forecasts made by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global passenger numbers, on average, will not exceed 2019 levels at least until 2024.
Short-haul travel will continue to drive the industry’s recovery, as the growth rate of single-aisle planes will be at around 3.7 per cent annually, compared with that of bigger aircraft, stationed at 3.2 per cent.
“Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), delivering an estimated 80 per cent of aircraft between them,” Cirium added.
Airbus made the headlines earlier this month when its chief executive Guillaume Faury said China’s abrupt reopening of its borders could spell short-term trouble.
“In the short-term, China will create additional difficulties and complexities that we will have to deal with,” the chief executive told journalists on 10 January.
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