bondmarket
Income-focused investors have a choice to make when allocating capital this year. Some investors are opting to move their cash to US Treasuries, which are delivering strong returns amid the stubbornly high inflation. The 10-year Treasury Note is yielding 4.6% while the 3-month and 6-month notes are yielding 5.36%. On the other hand, the much-beloved Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) has a yield of about 3.4%. Other high-yield stocks like Realty Income (O), VICI Properties (VICI), and Energy Transfer (ET) has a yield of 7.95% and its stock is up by over 14% this year. Fed may not cut rates a...
Invezz
The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield tends to move inversely with the S&P 500The negative correlation started in 2022 and has accelerated as the S&P 500 hit new lows after the 10-year peaked earlierA reversal signal candle on the 10-year yield may signal a bottom in the S&P 500 with a one to two week heads upIt’s conventional knowledge that stocks and bonds tend to move inversely or have a negative correlation most of the time. When interest rates rise, stocks fall, bond yields rise, and bond prices fall. Interest rates haven’t been much of a factor for over a decade until inflation reared its...
ValueWalk
Dear fellow investors, “The stock market is there to serve you and not to instruct you.” –Warren Buffett. May 5th, 1997 at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting What The Stock Or Bond Markets Are Telling UsThe future is always unknown. One of the most common fallacies that we’ve heard over the last two years is investors saying to us what the stock market or bond markets are telling us about the future. We find this interesting because it doesn’t tell you anything. As Buffett says, these market prices can serve you, but they can’t instruct you. We would like to share a couple of hi...
ValueWalk
In hisDaily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on a recession brewing, Louis Navellier wrote: [soros] Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Someone needs to tell the bond market about the high inflation numbers. Stocks are acting like interest rates have spiked hard and that investors have recalculated stock valuations using much higher discount rates of future cash flows, which would punish all stocks, all else being equal, the higher the P/E the more the damage, but especially those companies with no current earnings. Tech StrugglesThe tech sector, which dominates ...
ValueWalk
In hisDaily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on the horrific swings in the bond market, Louis Navellier wrote: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Horrific Bond SwingsThere were some swings in stocks due to the hot CPI releases, but the swings in the bond market were truly horrific. We declined below a rising 50-day moving average on the 10-year Treasury yield the day before the CPI release, and we violently rose above it when the 6.2% inflation number hit the tape. I am puzzled that Treasury yields declined as much as they did in November, going into the Fed tap...
ValueWalk
For weekend reading, while commenting on the bond market’s violent short squeeze, Louis Navellier offers the following commentary: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Bond Market's Violent Short SqueezeProvided the pandemic is winding down, I think Powell would like to see the 10-year Treasury rate above 2%. It will cool down the real estate market, it might push stock prices 10%-15% lower, and it may give the perception that the Fed is in control of the situation. To be fair, hiking interest rates during a supply shock might be counterproductive, but there are plenty of thing...
ValueWalk
Dear fellow investors, During our quarterly webcast last week (October 21, 2021), someone asked us a great question. They asked, “Does the ten-year Treasury bond rate at 1.65% and an inflation rate of 5% teach us that inflation will be transitory?” It is an important question because the majority of economists and market strategists are betting that inflation is transitory. Look at the chart of 10-Year Treasury bonds going back to 1970: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more A Look At 10-Year Bond Prices From 1981Our answer to the question goes back to 1981, when we were at the other...
ValueWalk
In his Weekend Reading Notes to investors, while commenting on the long-overdue stock market correction, Louis Navellier wrote: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Long-Overdue Stock Market CorrectionThe missing, but long-overdue correction in stocks is probably a factor of the relentless pumping of electronic dollars into the financial system at a rate of $120 billion per month, causing the Federal Reserve balance sheet to rise to $8.349 trillion at last count. The pump rate will likely throttle down by the end of the year – Powell told us so! – so the trillion-dollar questio...
ValueWalk
Insights into the market and economic conditions from the wealth advisors and portfolio managers at Bel Air Investment Advisors, an investment firm that focuses on overseeing and managing the over $8 billion in assets for 300 high-net-worth families, individuals and foundations. They discuss President-elect Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus plan, the loose monetary policy, coronavirus vaccine distribution, oil and copper prices and much more. Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Market Could Increase 10% With Biden's Stimulus PlanTodd Morgan, Charmain “COVID-19 and the vaccine are th...
ValueWalk
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