europeaneconomy
European private sector economic activity showed a strong rebound in April driven by strong demand in services. However, some inflationary pressures do not appear entirely vanquished, leaving uncertainty regarding the speed of returning to European Central Bank (ECB)'s 2% target. The flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys released by S&P Global on Tuesday continued to indicate robust growth in the services sector across major European economies, alongside persistent challenges in manufacturing activity. Featured below is a visual depiction of the latest trends in private sector activit...
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Discussing the state of the European economy and geopolitical challenges, she emphasised the need for about €600 billion annually to support climate change mitigation efforts, underlining the critical role of private financial support for these initiatives. Lagarde also provided insight into the current state of the European economy, the ongoing efforts in US-EU economic cooperation, and the broader implications of geopolitical challenges. IMF sees eurozone growth rebounding and ECB cutting rates by the fourth quarterEurozone inflation eases: Trends across the continent and ECB rate expectatio...
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Investor sentiment about Europe's economic prospects has substantially improved, according to the latest Bank of America European Fund Manager Survey. The survey, which polled 260 managers with assets under management totalling $719 billion (€578 billion) between 5 April and 11 April, shows that half of respondents now anticipate a stronger European economy over the next year - a steep rise from 21% last month, marking the highest level of optimism since July 2021. However, 36% of the panel still foresee a slowdown, attributing it to the lingering effects of monetary tightening, though this fi...
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But the agenda is set to be overshadowed by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which the West fears could soon spiral out of control and turn into a wider regional conflict. The concerns have been simmering since the start of the Israel-Hamas war and escalated dramatically after an Israeli airstrike hit the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. In retaliation, Teheran launched its first-ever attack on Israeli soil with 300 drones, ballistic and cruise missiles, the vast majority of which were intercepted by Israel. The barrage opened a ne...
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sent shockwaves across Europe, prompting a reassessment of security priorities and defence strategies across the board. In response to the escalating tensions and evolving geopolitical landscape, most European nations have embarked on a path of increased defence spending and the EU is attempting to mount and facilitate a joint endeavour in order to solve the continental security dilemma. European countries cut spending as the threat of war recededSince the end of the Cold War, European countries have mostly cut defence spending in favour of social, infrastr...
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The euro's path to parity now hinges on European Central Bank (ECB) actions and US Federal Reserve signals, promising a volatile summer. Lagarde sets the stage for a June rate cut: What hurdles remain for the ECB?As the European Central Bank (ECB) signals potential interest rate cuts starting as early as June, contrasting with the expected delay in monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve due to persistent high inflation, significant questions arise regarding the euro's trajectory against the dollar. The euro has faced significant downward pressure this week, falling below 1.07 against the do...
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Recent figures have bolstered market expectations for rate reductions starting in June, with the economist consensus pointing to an imminent easing cycle. "We will know a little more in April, but we will know a lot more in June," Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), left us hanging in March, not giving much room for speculation on imminent interest rate cuts in the eurozone. This week, the ECB convenes again on Thursday. No change in interest rates is anticipated, yet Lagarde will be called upon to clarify what "little more" we have actually learned about inflation...
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Fiscal nightmares that plagued Europe in the past are making a comeback, affecting Italy, France and other European countries. Last week, during a parliamentary hearing, Italy's Finance Minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, indicated the European Commission is likely to recommend that the Council initiate an excessive deficit procedure against Italy and several other countries. In early March, Italy's national statistics office, Istat,revised the previous year's deficit to 7.2% of GDP from 5.3%. Italy is set to unveil its Economic and Financial Document (DEF) this week, which will provide further ins...
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The volume of retail sales in the eurozone fell by 0.5% month-over-month in February, more than expected, and by 0.4% in the EU. That's according to the seasonally adjusted first estimates from Eurostat. Retail sales also dropped in a yearly comparison in both the EU and the eurozone, by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively, continuing a declining trend in the eurozone that has been going on for 17 consecutive months. All categories of retail spending suffered in February. In a monthly comparison, trade of food, drinks and tobacco decreased by 0.4%, non-food products by 0.2%, and automotive fuel by 1.4%...
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The Eurozone economy is witnessing an upswing, with the latest business surveys indicating the fastest expansion in private sector activity in the last ten months, primarily driven by the services sector's robust growth. According to the latest Eurozone Composite PMI data, activity expanded to 50.3 in March, the most robust level observed since May 2023. This revision from an initial estimate of 49.9 signifies a notable leap from February's 49.2, hinting at expansionary economic conditions. Sectoral divergence: Services vs. manufacturingHowever, a stark contrast between the health of the servi...
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