markettiming
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
I was on a walk with a friend the other day and he asked me what is the strongest argument that I can make in opposition to Valuation-Informed Indexing. The first thing that came to mind is that the first true research-based strategy has not performed well in recent years. Shiller’s WarningIn 1996, Shiller published a paper warning that investors who failed to lower their stock allocations in response to the crazy valuation levels of that time would live to regret it within 10 years. We did not see a price crash for 12 years. So Shiller was a bit off. He had come up with the 10-year figure by ...
ValueWalk
The Buy-and-Holders made a mistake when they came out with the idea that market timing/price discipline is not required when purchasing stocks. It’s a weird one. Price discipline is of course absolutely critical in every other market that exists. It’s price discipline that supplies the magic that permits the market to get the price of the thing being sold right, which is the core purpose of a market. So it seems more than a little bit out there to suggest (or to insist!) that it doesn’t work that way at all in the stock market. But I am extremely reluctant to conclude that the whole thing was ...
ValueWalk
Practice market timing (that is, lower your stock allocation when valuations go very high and increase it when valuations go very low) and you will lower the risk of stock investing by 70 percent. Wade Pfau and I showed this in research we had published in a peer-reviewed journal. Everyone wants to lower the risk of stock investing. So everyone engages in market timing today. Um… No, that’s not so. Only a small percentage of the investing population engages in market timing. The Buy-and-Holders have argued that it’s a bad idea and most of us have bought into what they say. I have been trying t...
ValueWalk
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