stockvaluations
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
I was once very popular. No – really! From May of 1999 through May of 2002, I posted on the internet only about effective saving strategies. People loved my stuff. It got to a point at which I would turn up in the morning at my favorite discussion board and say “hello” and the post would get eight recommendations! It sounds terrible for me to say it but it was getting annoying. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more One thing that I love about writing on discussion boards and blogs is that you obtain quick feedback on your ideas and that helps you refine them. People patting you on t...
ValueWalk
People spend more when stock prices are high. It’s so obvious that it’s a silly thing to say. But I think it needs to be said at a time when most stock investors are ignoring Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. Shiller offered us the means to combating irrational exuberance and of thereby reining in the wasteful and destructive spending that takes place as the result of improperly high stock prices. Improperly High Stock PricesSay that an individual earns $80,000 per year at her job. She of course pays taxes on that amount and has a m...
ValueWalk
In hisDaily Market Notes report to investors, Louis Navellier wrote: Higher Than Expected CPICPI comes in above estimates, and the market opens down but was flat in the first half hour. Market volatility remains high as demonstrated by today’s reaction to higher inflation than expected shows. The S&P has swung 56 points in both directions in an hour. The inflation numbers were only slightly higher than expected; the headline inflation number for January was 0.5%, vs the 0.4% estimate, core CPI was 0,4% as expected. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more At issue is the trend: 0.5% he...
ValueWalk
Today’s CAPE value is 31. Did you even know that? It is my sense that most investors do not pay close attention to stock valuations. Most appreciate that valuations are high today. But stock valuations have been high for 25 years. So that’s hardly a shocking reality. I don’t get the sense that most investors fret too much over whether the CAPE is 25 or 30 or 35, or heaven help us all, 40, as it was in the late 1990s. Stock valuations are high. So what? Stock valuations are always high. It’s no biggie. There’s no news value in that reality. Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more CAPE ...
ValueWalk
Valuation-Informed investment strategies are an exercise in time travel. Today’s CAPE value is 35. That’s double the fair-value CAPE value of 17. Since Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research shows that irrational exuberance always disappears in time, I believe that it makes sense to divide the amount listed as the value of my stock portfolio in two to identify its true and lasting value. What I am essentially doing is moving forward to the time when that overvaluation will be gone. Acting like it already doesn’t exist makes financial planning a lot easier. Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferenc...
ValueWalk
In hisDaily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on the volatile earnings season, Louis Navellier wrote: Tech SuffersRising interest rates continue to pressure stocks. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury broke above 2.75%, while still below the 3-, 5-, & 7-year yields, continuing to put downward pressure on stock valuations. Several bond funds have now hit 52-week lows due to rising rates. Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Stocks opened in the red this morning, following last week's loss. Once again tech names are suffering the most, outside of the now-deemed defe...
ValueWalk
We spend lots of money on lots of different things over the course of our lives. Groceries. Transportation. Entertainment. Housing. Health insurance. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more But most of us end up devoting a larger portion of our earnings to the purchase of stocks than to anything else. Most aim to put aside something in the neighborhood of $1 million to finance a comfortable middle-class retirement. We don’t spend that much on housing or groceries. Stocks are an important purchase. Arguably the most important. We Feel Unconfident When We Buy StocksHowever, most of us d...
ValueWalk
You sometimes hear people say that those who live in democracies have no one but themselves to blame for the government they get. I feel that way about the models for understanding how stock investing works that come to dominate our thinking. If Buy-and-Hold is a bad model, as I believe it is, we all share in the blame for the harm that it does. Buy-and-Hold didn’t become popular by edict. We made it popular. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Buy-And-Hold Is Bad NewsI of course have to note that the Buy-and-Holders came up with lots of wonderful stuff. Investors need to focus on...
ValueWalk
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