wadepfau
I wrote last week about Wade Pfau’s recent comments that earlier in his career (this is when he was working with me on our research showing the benefits of long-term market timing) he believed in market timing but that he now believes that it stopped working in 1996. I don’t believe that. Wade is correct that stock prices have remained at super high prices for a longer time since 1996 than ever before in the history of the U.S. market.Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and moreExplaning The The Strange Price HistoryMy problem with the idea that how the market works changed in 1996 is that...
ValueWalk
Morningstar recently published a podcast in which they interviewed Wade Pfau, who co-authored research with me a number of years back showing the benefits of long-term market timing. The title of the podcast is — Wade Pfau: The 4 Percent Rule Is No Longer Safe. A transcript is set forth at the link.Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and moreThe Idea Of Using Market ValuationsWade is asked at one point: “What about the idea of using market valuations as sort of a signal that it’s time to de-risk or does that seem too much life market timing to you?”He states:“Earlier in my career I was kin...
ValueWalk
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