Wading into the dangerous territory that is football finance is a necessary evil nowadays when reporting on Everton, who are perennially embroiled in such affairs.
For that, I have Farhad Moshiri’s recklessness to thank.
It was through years of misspending under his stewardship that the club have been plunged into such fiscal turmoil, leaving the Premier League licking their lips at the opportunity to slam down on them without any sturdy reasoning.
As such, Evertonians are furious, especially given a second points deduction could still come despite having already lost six this season.
Fortunately, we at Everton News spoke exclusively to Chartered Global Management Accountant and sports finance expert Dan Plumley in an effort to attain some clarity amidst all the mess.
Dan Plumley predicts Everton’s second deduction
Well, we wasted no time in first asking the football finance expert for his prediction on Everton’s second deduction, and he certainly delivered.
Although, he chuckled when the question was posed, likely aware of what a minefield predictions can be in such a tumultuous, subjective and downright crazy area of football.
This was evident in the first line of his reply: ‘I think predictions are tricky.’
He would continue: ‘I went with six for Forest as an example but it’s come down to four on mitigation, so you’ve got that and how does that play out for Everton with a second breach as well.
‘You’ve already had a points deduction at Everton so there’s got to be some sort of mitigation taken for that as well.
‘If you’re asking me to predict then a conservative prediction, if it’s found to be another breach in the same ballpark as the first two then the club might be looking at that and thinking if it’s three points then maybe that’s a possible outcome.
‘Again, any appeal to that and how it plays out, even if you can get one or two points back on appeal that can become quite crucial in the bigger picture. Forest’s two for mitigation might be crucial, it’s that tight.
‘If we were predicting then three is kind of a number that we’d be looking at but it could also go either side of that.
‘One thing that will be pretty clear is that whatever the verdict is there is likely to be an appeal from the club again. The Premier League will have to work really hard to fast-track this process now.’
The Premier League are impossible to predict
As good a go as Dan gave, in reality, this is a near-impossible job.
After all, following Everton’s initial ten-point deduction, later reduced to six after appeal, it felt like a precedent had been set.
And yet, with Forest’s having come out with a four-point deduction as a starting point, everyone was left confused.
There are no set statutes and nothing that seems to govern these decision-makers, who seem to conjure up their conclusions based loosely on fact but mainly on feeling.
That is what is so wrong with this process, and why Evertonians have every right to feel cheated.