Former President Donald Trump appears to have an insurmountable grip on the Republican Party, emphasized by his easy victory for a third presidential nomination earlier this month.
But look closer, argued Trump-skeptic conservative analyst Charlie Sykes for MSNBC on Friday: the former president's grip on power is shakier than it appears.
"Trump’s outsize control in the party is formidable — but it’s far from complete. That means figures who could pry those fissures open — such as former congresswoman Liz Cheney and former Vice President Mike Pence — could have an outsize influence on the 2024 election," wrote Sykes. "An NBC exit poll in Ohio this week found that almost 1 out of 5 Republican primary voters — including nearly half of Nikki Haley’s supporters — say they will not vote for Trump in November."
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"While 18% is not a majority, it’s not chopped liver either. And it’s consistent with what happened at ballot boxes across the country," he continued. "Even though Trump is running unopposed, large numbers of Republicans continue to refuse to vote for the ex-president. In Kansas, nearly a quarter (24.5%) of Republican voters came out to cast ballots for somebody else. In Florida, opponents who had dropped out of the race received 18.8% of the vote; in Ohio, it was 20.8%; in Illinois, 19.2%. And, in the crucial swing state of Arizona, 22.1% of Republicans voted for a non-Trump alternative, a result that led Haley’s zombie campaign to put out a congratulatory tweet."
All of this is occurring against the backdrop of Trump installing his own loyalists in the Republican National Committee leadership, and the party's new joint fundraising committee with Trump allows him to siphon off donor money for his legal expenses — an arrangement a large number of GOP officials had reportedly wanted for some time.
But a large number of Republican voters don't want it, Sykes said — enough that they could deny Trump victory in November. Particularly if disaffected GOP leaders like Liz Cheney step up and encourage it.
"Cheney and Pence are hardly alone. Just run through the extraordinary list of former Trump Cabinet members, chiefs of staff, defense secretaries and national security advisers who are refusing to endorse him," wrote Sykes. "Their warnings about the dangers of a second Trump presidency aren’t coming from Democrats or the hosts on MSNBC — they are coming from inside the house. And in a close election, that could make all the difference."
