Over the past two weeks, Russian forces have increased the number and scale of mechanized ground assaults in certain areas of the front, indicating a noticeable overall increase in the number of Russian mechanized assaults across the entire theater of operations, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
It is noted that on March 20, the Defense Forces repelled a large Russian attack in the Lyman direction. Geolocation footage indicated that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed several Russian armored vehicles east of the village of Terni.
The report then refers to the repulsion on March 30 of a battalion-sized Russian mechanized attack near the village of Tonenke west of Avdiivka. In this attack, Russian forces deployed at least 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), of which the Defense Forces destroyed 12 enemy tanks and 8 IFVs.
ISW suggests that Russian forces have conducted only one other mechanized attack of this scale along the entire front since the start of the Russian campaign to capture Avdiivka in October 2023, which also took place near Terni on January 20.
In the geolocated video released on April 3, Ukrainian forces are seen repelling a reinforced platoon-sized Russian mechanized attack near Terni.
"Russian forces may be intensifying mechanized assaults before muddy terrain becomes more pronounced in the spring and makes mechanized maneuver warfare more difficult. Russian forces may also be intensifying mechanized assaults to take advantage of Ukrainian materiel shortages before the arrival of expected Western security assistance," the ISW report said.
Intensification of the offensive in a new direction
Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets has noted the gradual transfer by Russian forces of equipment and personnel to forward positions in small batches, making it difficult for the Defense Forces to monitor the concentration of Russian forces. The analyst suggests that the Russians are preparing for more extensive assault operations.
Meanwhile, according to the ISW report, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell stated on April 3 that, in the US assessment, Russia has largely recovered militarily over the past few months. According to him,
"USDeputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell stated on April 3 that the US assesses that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily over the past several months, suggesting that Russia is preparing and may already have sufficient manpower and materiel to significantly intensify ongoing offensive operations or initiate offensive efforts in new areas of the theater," Campbell said.
Frontline situation
On April 3, there were 54 combat engagements on the front line. Ukrainian soldiers repelled a Russian attack near Andriivka in the Luhansk region and damaged the enemy's electronic warfare station.
The special unit fighters of the National Guard of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Omega-1 destroyed a column of Russian occupiers' armored vehicles on the eastern front and released an interesting video from a drone.