There are going to be so many moving parts in the Formula 1 driver’s market this year, that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to know who has a secure seat for 2025 and who doesn’t.
There are technically 13 drivers out of contract at the end of the season, although Lance Stroll’s deal at Aston Martin is unlikely to not be renewed given his father’s position within the team.
Speaking on the Pit Talk Podcast, journalist Mat Coch believes one driver is unlikely to be offered a new deal no matter what he does this season.
That’s because there’s a major regulation change looming over each team.
The 2025 season is likely to be very similar to this year, especially as many manufacturers won’t want to invest too heavily in a car that will be redundant in 12 months.
However, 2026 is going to see big changes and teams will want their driver line-ups embedded for a season before going into that campaign.
Coch therefore believes that Sergio Perez could lose his seat for 2025 at Red Bull as Christian Horner attempts to prepare this team for their new car.
It would be very harsh on the Mexican driver who has performed very well this season, but there’s one available driver who might be a better long-term fit.
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Sergio Perez could lose his Red Bull seat for 2025
After four Grand Prix, Red Bull are leading the way in the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championship.
Max Verstappen is still top of the table despite his retirement in Australia, but three podiums in four races sees Perez sitting narrowly behind him.
However, his inability to capitalise on Verstappen’s DNF in Melbourne is a slight worry especially as he was so far off the pace of Ferrari and McLaren drivers.
There are whispers in the paddock that Perez might have already signed a one-year extension at Red Bull.
But Red Bull might now want to prepare their driver line-up for the foreseeable future in 2025 which means Perez will lose his seat.
Ferrari are constantly improving and considering how Perez’s displays faltered throughout last year, they need a more consistent performer alongside Verstappen to guarantee both titles.
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Red Bull could look to the future with next driver signing
Speaking about the 38-podium driver, Coch said: “We’re seeing a different Sergio [Perez], he seems calmer, more relaxed, more confident and maybe that’s a result of being more comfortable, he understands his position within the team, the role, the responsibility, the obligation that he’s got is just back up Max [Verstappen].
“He’s Stirling Moss to Max Verstappen’s Juan Manuel Fangio, just follow behind and pick up the pieces if there are any.
“But, if I’m Christian Horner, I’m still looking at 2026 and 2025 as a bridging year to 2026.
“If I’ve got a very good car in 2025, I want to get the driver in, get them comfortable, get them on the front foot so that in 2026, they’re ready to go.
“That’s why regardless of how well Sergio’s doing this year so far, I don’t think he’ll be at the team next year.
“I wouldn’t be too surprised if Carlos Sainz is.”
Helmut Marko’s recent comments will worry Sergio Perez
The availability of Carlos Sainz is going to prove to be a real issue for at least one driver next year as if he occupies a top seat then there’s going to be a big knock-on effect.
While Perez might believe he’s done enough not to lose his seat for 2025, the noises being made by those above him at Red Bull are troubling.
Christian Horner is reportedly a big fan of bringing the Spaniard back into the Red Bull fold.
Helmut Marko also commented on the 29-year-old during the Japanese Grand Prix and admitted he’d been ‘incredible’ this year.
Speaking to Sky Germany, the Red Bull advisor said: “He is currently in incredible form. Sainz came into Formula 1 through Red Bull and also had a very good year at Toro Rosso.
“Sainz is certainly a name that you have to take into account.”
Sergio Perez has a point to prove over the coming weeks and months and has to show that he’s the best option for Red Bull going forward.
Unfortunately, Sainz is doing an even better job in the Ferrari right now and that gives Red Bull a conundrum they need to resolve.
The post ‘I don’t think’: 38-podium driver could lose 2025 seat ‘regardless’ of his performances this year – journalist appeared first on F1 Oversteer.