Fernando Alonso’s commitment to staying at Aston Martin for 2025 and beyond has set the wheels in motion for the Formula 1 driver’s market.
The Spaniard’s new contract has repercussions up and down the paddock and has closed off one option for Carlos Sainz as he searches for a new home after being replaced at Ferrari.
Speaking on The Race Podcast, journalist Ben Anderson believes there are now five drivers who are at risk of not being in the Formula 1 grid in 2025.
After four races, there are already drivers making a brilliant case to earn a new contract or a move elsewhere, while others are failing to impress.
There are also several teams – such as Alpine – who are in real trouble right now and need to make some meaningful upgrades if they’re going to avoid finishing at the bottom of the Constructors’ Championship.
However, both of their drivers – Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon – don’t appear to be at risk of leaving the paddock next year.
Instead, five drivers including Sauber and Haas’s stars and Logan Sargeant, are on the brink of missing out in 2025.
If Sainz doesn’t end up at either Red Bull or Mercedes, then he’ll be potentially taking one of their seats.
Five drivers ‘on the bubble’ of losing their F1 seats in 2025
The driver out of that quintet who seems most at risk of losing their seat is Logan Sargeant.
The young American was handed a second contract after his rookie season at Williams after the finale in Abu Dhabi, but this year has not gone well for the 23-year-old.
He had a technical issue in Bahrain and failed to challenge for points in Saudi Arabia.
His race weekend was over before qualifying in Australia after giving up his chassis to Alex Albon before he spun out and finished last in Japan.
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There are already suggestions that he could potentially be replaced mid-season by Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
Sauber will become Audi in 2026 and they’ll want the strongest line-up possible when they do arrive on the grid.
That means Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu might have to move on for 2025 if they secure their key targets, putting them among the five drivers at risk right now.
Haas are also on an upward trajectory right now and with Oliver Bearman potentially arriving next year following his brilliant cameo in Saudi Arabia, both of their drivers will know they could be heading out of the door next year.
Quintet of Formula 1 drivers at risk for next year
Speaking about the driver’s market, Anderson said: “I think that they would, now that Gene [Haas] seems prepared to turn on the taps again, I think taking the guy with money or commercial opportunities is less important.
“So, I feel like there are five guys who are on the bubble and that’s Zhou [Guanyu], [Valtteri] Bottas, [Nico] Hulkenberg, [Kevin] Magnussen and [Logan] Sargeant.
“I think Sargeant will go probably at the end of the season, so then it’s out of those four, I imagine Haas will keep one of Magnussen or Hulkenberg whichever’s performing better unless obviously Hulkenberg gets in at Sauber because they can’t get their first option in which case I think Magnussen’s position is strengthened as they’ll like the idea of having a solid guy alongside [Ollie] Bearman at least for one year in the short-term.
“But Bottas is probably an upgrade, so if he comes onto the market he would be a good option for Haas if he wanted to go there.
“Again, two of those guys are definitely going to go. Sargeant’s probably one so then it’s a case of pick your other.”
Nico Hulkenberg the most likely out of five drivers to still be on the grid next year – opinion
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Out of the five drivers who could lose their place on the grid for 2025, Nico Hulkenberg appears to be the least at risk of dropping out.
The 36-year-old German has been fantastic for Haas this season, starring in qualifying during the season opener in Bahrain before scoring points in Saudi Arabia and Australia.
Even if Japan Hulkenberg was only one position of finishing 10 but was thwarted by Yuki Tsunoda.
Haas would be mad not to offer Hulkenberg a new deal for 2025 and beyond and he’d be brilliant alongside Bearman.
However, Audi are also big fans of the experienced German and he might fancy becoming part of their project before they join the grid.
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