Our political columnist Phil Rodgers analyses the Cambridge City Council election by ward, and look ahead to the police and crime commissioner elections.
This year’s city council elections bring an echo of the all-up elections held in 2021.
In that year, following boundary changes, each of the city’s 14 wards elected all three of its councillors at once; this year we are back to the normal pattern of just one, but councillors who topped the poll in 2021 are facing the voters this year.
As a result, we have some well-known Cambridge names defending their seats. For Labour, this includes city council leader Mike Davey, as well as the current mayor Jenny Gawthrope Wood; among the Lib Dems facing the voters are city council group leader Tim Bick and county council leader Lucy Nethsingha; and Green candidates include their leader Naomi Bennett.
The overall picture is that while Labour’s grip on the city council isn’t quite as vice-like as it was two years ago, it is still pretty firm. While it’s theoretically possible that Labour could lose control this year, it would require a spectacular meltdown, which seems unlikely given the state of the national opinion polls.
Nevertheless, they are under pressure on several fronts. Their main opposition in Cambridge, the Liberal Democrats, are targeting several Labour-held seats, while the Green Party is continuing its strategy of ward-by-ward expansion by focusing on Coleridge this year along with Abbey and Newnham.
The Conservatives are active in King’s Hedges and Cherry Hinton, and three Independents, one Communist, and a Freedom Alliance candidate are also standing.
Here’s a look at the prospects in each of the wards.
Abbey
Once very safe for Labour, Abbey is now a stronghold for the Green Party, who hold all three city council seats, and will be hungrily eyeing up the Labour-held county council seat next year. This year, however, it’s the turn of Cambridge Green leader Naomi Bennett to face the voters. Her Labour opponent is Ben Cartwright, a student at Christ’s College, with regular candidates Rosy Ansell and David Smith representing the Lib Dems and Conservatives respectively. The Abbey ballot paper also features the first Communist candidate to stand in Cambridge for many years, Simon Brignell. While student candidates have occasionally been elected, the Greens will be hoping that they won’t have a strong Labour challenge to contend with this year.
Arbury
Last year’s election was the first time this century that a Conservative had got as high as second place in Arbury, which was a Labour/Lib Dem battleground before the 2010 coalition, and a fairly safe Labour seat after it. This year, Labour incumbent Patrick Sheil will be hoping for another comfortable majority. John Leighton makes a first appearance in Arbury for the Lib Dems, while Conservative Robert Boorman will hope to be lucky on his 13th time on a Cambridge ballot paper. He is a mere beginner, however, compared to Green candidate Stephen Lawrence, who, undeterred by 27 previous election defeats, is back for a record-breaking 28th time.
Castle
Last year Castle provided one of the closest results in the city. With two vacancies, thanks to a by-election alongside the scheduled election, the Lib Dems and Labour each took one seat. Labour was also in the runner-up position, just ahead of Independent candidate David Summerfield, who campaigned against the congestion charge.
The graph shows recent vote shares based on the highest vote for each party. This year there is just one seat up for election, being defended by Labour’s Antoinette Nestor. Caroline Stoddart makes a third attempt at the seat for the Lib Dems, and David Summerfield is also back for another run. The Greens and Conservatives are represented by student candidates Esme Hennessy and Szymon Sawicki.
Cherry Hinton
While Cherry Hinton is normally the sort of ward where you can weigh rather than count the Labour vote, last year it nearly produced a dramatic upset as the Conservative campaign against the Sustainable Travel Zone came within 64 votes of unseating 28-year council veteran Rob Dryden. This year it’s Conservative Mo Pantall who will be hoping that the congestion charge issue still provides some electoral zing, while Labour incumbent Mark Ashton will be hoping that it doesn’t. Aiden Roe for the Lib Dems and Josh Morris-Blake for the Greens are both standing in Cherry Hinton for the first time.
Coleridge
Coleridge is another ward where Labour are facing more of a challenge than they have in previous years, as the Greens have added it to the fairly short list of wards where they are focusing their campaigning efforts. The incumbent is Labour’s Tim Griffin, who was first elected in last year’s by-election, and his Green opponent is Sarah Nicmanis, who will also be seeking election as Cambridge MP later this year. Former councillor Shapour Meftah is the Conservative candidate, and Judy Brunton appears again for the Lib Dems.
East Chesterton
Labour’s incumbent in East Chesterton is the well-known former mayor of Cambridge, Gerri Bird. Gerri enjoys a considerable personal vote in her ward, judging by the results in the 2021 all-up elections, when she was the highest-polling Labour candidate by 440 votes. She is faced by Bob Illingworth for the Lib Dems, who is making a fourth attempt at being elected, having come within 28 votes of victory in 2022. Elizabeth May and Frank Ribeiro are both back on the ballot paper for the Greens and Conservatives respectively.
King’s Hedges
The graph of King’s Hedges results shows how quickly the ward changed from being a safe Labour seat to a marginal, as the congestion charge issue played a key role in last year’s dramatic Conservative by-election victory. This year Cambridge mayor Jenny Gawthrope Wood is defending her seat for Labour, while Conservative Nazrul Islam will be hoping to double his party’s representation on the city council. Fionna Tod appears once again for the Lib Dems, and newcomer Robin Brabham represents the Greens.
Market
While the Lib Dems sometimes have narrow majorities in Market ward, they’ve only occasionally failed to win it in recent years. This year the seat is being defended by Lib Dem group leader Tim Bick, who has represented Market continuously since 2008. Rosy Greenlees is making a second attempt at winning the ward for Labour, as is Krzysztof Strug for the Greens. The candidate line-up is completed by Conservative candidate John Marenbon, an honorary professor of medieval philosophy.
Newnham
Newnham provides one of the most intriguing contests in the city, as its three city council seats are currently held by three different parties. The Green candidate Hugh Clough will be hoping for a repeat of his party’s gain last year, but he is facing one of the longest-serving Lib Dem councillors, Lucy Nethsingha, who has never yet lost a Newnham election. For Labour, Yvonne Nobis will have hopes of repeating her party’s 2022 victory.
The graph shows the results in recent years. Susie Williams is standing for the Conservatives for a second time, and she is joined on the ballot paper by David Carmona, who previously stood for the Conservatives in Queen Edith’s, but is now running as an Independent.
Petersfield
In last year’s local elections, Petersfield was Labour’s safest seat in the city, with a majority of nearly 800 votes. This year city council leader Mike Davey is up for re-election. His Lib Dem opponent Sam Oliver is standing in his fourth ward in as many years, while Conservative Paul Roper makes a second attempt in Petersfield, and newcomer Zak Karimjee represents the Greens. Unlike all the other wards, Petersfield also has a Freedom Alliance candidate standing, Christopher Wilkinson, who opposes (amongst other things) central bank digital currencies and net-zero policies dictated by the World Economic Forum.
Queen Edith’s
It’s less than five months since Immy Blackburn-Horgan won the Queen Edith’s by-election for the Lib Dems, but the remorseless electoral timetable means she is facing the voters again. Her Labour opponent is first-time candidate Beth Gardiner-Smith, founder of a refugee charity. The Green Party’s candidate is Oliver Fisher, who is also standing for Parliament in South Cambs, while former Conservative councillor (and there aren’t too many of those about) Eric Barrett-Payton makes his 19th appearance in a Cambridge election.
Romsey
This year Dave Baigent is seeking a fourth term of office for Labour. It’s 10 years since he was first elected in Romsey, with a relatively narrow majority of 112, but in recent years the ward has been a good deal safer for the red team. Lib Dem John Walmsley is standing for the fourth year running, while neither Rob Nelson for the Conservatives or Iain Webb for the Greens have stood in Romsey before. There is also an Independent candidate on the ballot paper, Will Bannell, who has been prominent in the campaign to keep Mill Road bridge open to cars.
Trumpington
Lib Dem incumbent David Levien is standing down this year, with newcomer Nadya Lokhmotova hoping to take his place for the yellow team in a ward that they usually, but not invariably, win. For Labour, Carlos Toranzos will be hoping to improve on his previous second place. Chloe Mosonyi returns for the Greens, and Steven George is back for the Conservatives after a three-year break.
West Chesterton
West Chesterton, like its eastern neighbour, has often been a Labour/Lib Dem battleground, with Labour having the upper hand in recent years. This year, it features a repeat of the 2022 clash between Labour’s Sam Carling and Lib Dem Jamie Dalzell, which Sam Carling won by just 58 votes last time. Shayne Mitchell is standing for the Greens in her 21st Cambridge election, and regular Conservative candidate Michael Harford is back for a sixth year.
Police and Crime Commissioner election
As well as the city council elections, Cambridge voters will also be choosing the next Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Police and Crime Commissioner on 2 May.
The graph shows the first choice votes in previous contests. Earlier in the year, my feeling was that the Conservative incumbent, Darryl Preston, was likely to hold on to his post, but after taking a closer look at the data I now think Labour’s Anna Smith might be in with a good chance of victory, though Lib Dem candidate Edna Murphy will be hoping I’m wrong.
One factor that certainly favours the Conservatives is the change of voting system - the second choice vote, which helped Nik Johnson win the Combined Authority mayoralty for Labour in 2021, has been abolished, and this year’s contest will use First Past the Post.
However, there are also factors working in Labour’s favour. The most obvious of these is simply Labour’s huge lead over the Conservatives in the national opinion polls. At the time of the last PCC elections in 2021, the Conservatives led Labour by about nine per cent in the polls; at the moment Labour is around 20 per cent ahead. This represents more than double the swing that Labour needs to overhaul the Conservative majority at the last PCC elections.
Another factor favouring Labour is that Cambridge and Peterborough have council elections on the same day as the PCC vote, but the other four districts in Cambridgeshire do not. From previous results, this is likely to mean a higher turnout in Cambridge and Peterborough, which are the two best areas for Labour.
After crunching the numbers I think this factor could benefit Labour by about four percentage points - not a huge amount, but potentially crucial in a close race. The fact that there’s no Reform candidate this time will probably help the Conservatives, but perhaps not by all that much - while many Reform voters are essentially fed-up Conservatives, they will still be fed up even if they can’t vote Reform, and may just stay at home.
Whatever else happens in Cambridge politics, this will be the last set of local elections before the General Election campaign gets under way later this year, so the results may give us some idea of how the battle for Westminster will unfold. You can find out more about the candidates as well as details of where to vote at the ever-helpful website whocanivotefor.co.uk.
And if you’re involved in electioneering this year, enjoy the rest of the campaign, and let’s all hope the rain holds off on polling day.
Look out for a Q&A with the parties, and statements from individuals, vying for your votes in the Cambridge Independent, out from Wednesday, 24 April.
