Liverpool have been named the fifth-most valuable club in the world and their takeover value could soon soar ahead of significant talks between Premier League owners in June.
In new analysis released today, Sportico have estimated that a prospective suitor would have to part with over £4billion to take control of the club from Fenway Sports Group.
The last movements in the ownership structure at Liverpool came in September 2023, when FSG sold a minority stake believed to be between 2-4 per cent to US private equity firm Dynasty Equity.
The value of that deal was not confirmed by either party but was reported at the time to be between £100-200million, which would value the club at anywhere between £2.5-10billion.
The party line from Liverpool is that the Dynasty Equity deal ended their search for strategic investment and, by extension, a takeover on the club.
But there have been several major changes at governance level since that date, some of which could eventually force FSG’s hand.
June talks could be crucial
The Premier League‘s 20 clubs are set to meet in June to vote for the final time on proposed ‘anchoring’ rules which would limit the amount clubs could spend on wages, transfers and agents.
The proposed new system – which currently has the support of every club besides Man City, Man United and Aston Villa – would limit clubs to spending a multiple of what the bottom club earns in TV revenue.
If passed in June, the new system will be used alongside new Profit and Sustainability system which dictates that clubs cannot spend more than 85 per cent of what they earn over a rolling three-year period.
While it may appear counterintuitive to claim that imposing a spending cap could actually increase some of the bigger clubs’ values, the American franchise model would suggest different.
Are Liverpool looking to the American model?
A spending cap comes with more certainty around costs, which in turn has historically increased the franchise value of teams in the NFL NBA and NHL.
Significantly, the same is true in the MLS – and 20 of the top 50 clubs in Sportico’s list of most valuable clubs came from that division.
A spending cap is more likely to shackle Man United and Man City in the transfer market than it is Liverpool, whose revenue in recent years has been lower.
Liverpool voted for the spending cap and John Henry‘s background in American franchise sport suggests that FSG believe it may be in their long-term interests in terms of a higher takeover price.
