A lot of polls show that Donald Trump has a good chance of winning the 2024 election, but one strategist doesn't see that actually happening.
Democratic political strategist Simon Rosenberg analyzed the state of the presidential race on Saturday, ultimately concluding that "Trump is not winning" the race against President Joe Biden. Rosenberg's analysis was published as part of his Hopium Chronicles.
Rosenberg, who has previously commented on Trump's scandals, argued that "Biden is doing much better in likely voter universes" in comparison to Trump.
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"Almost all of the polling that has shaped our understanding of the election so far has been of adults and registered voters, including in the battleground states," he said. "Many of the battleground state polls have also been very low sample size - 600 or so. There is now mounting evidence that as we move into the likely voter universe, and we use larger sample size (more accurate) polls, Biden’s numbers get better."
Regarding Trump himself, Rosenberg says the ex-president's "delusions, his bluster, all this is illiberalism are signs of a desperation, of weakness, of folks who are losing - it is all the very opposite of strength."
"Trump is a weak, pathetic and awful man not a strong man," the strategist added.
In conclusion, according to Rosenberg, "Trump is not winning this election."
"As voters get closer to making their choice, the ugliness of MAGA is causing Trump and Republicans to lose ground. Our strength among the emerging likely voter electorate is a big deal," he wrote on Saturday. "It means we are far more likely to win this November, and that all this red wavy analysis we’ve seen has not yet caught up to the realities of what are seeing now. If we keep doing the work what should happen this November is that we win, again, and they lose, again. But it’s up to us."