Red Bull may have suffered a rare defeat at the Miami Grand Prix last time out, but they remain the dominant force in Formula 1. Indeed, Max Verstappen might feel nobody has beaten him on pure pace this season.
Verstappen has failed to win two of this year’s six races, largely down to circumstances beyond his control. He retired with a brake issue in the early stages of the Australian GP, having started on pole and then jostled with eventual winner Carlos Sainz in the early stages.
He was also poised to convert pole position in Miami before a safety car played right into the hands of Lando Norris. Norris was able to make a ‘free’ pit stop and emerge in the lead, although the Dutchman wasn’t able to regain top spot after the restart.
McLaren were the fastest team on the Sunday after bringing an ‘astonishing’ upgrade package. And Ferrari expect to make a jump of around three-tenths with some updates of their own in Imola this weekend.
But Verstappen and the Bulls will still be the favourites to restore normality. Any talk of a lasting challenge to the world champions seems premature at this stage.
The expectation is that they will complete a ‘clean sweep’ of F1’s ground-effect era by winning both titles this year and next year. The biggest threat to their dominance might well be the 2026 regulation changes.
Ford CEO insists Red Bull are meeting 2026 engine goals amid worrying chatter
F1 has yet to finalise its chassis regulations for the new era, but appears committed to smaller and lighter cars in an effort to improve racing. Teams do know, however, that there will be significant changes to the power units.
While the MGU-H is no more, there will be a much greater reliance on electrical power. The simultaneous technical and aerodynamic challenge makes this one of the biggest rule resets in the sport’s recent history.
Red Bull has been building its engines in a partnership with Honda, but they’re cutting ties at the end of next year. The Japanese manufacturer is forming an exclusive deal with Aston Martin instead.
The Bulls will enter new territory as they build their own power units, albeit with Ford badges. And Sky Sports F1’s David Croft has already shared murmurs of an early deficit to their competitors.
In an interview with the Dutch edition of Motorsport.com, Ford Motorsports CEO Mark Rushbrook addressed the ‘paddock rumours’ that Red Bull were ‘lagging behind’. He insists that they’re ticking their own objectives, but don’t have a frame of reference for their rivals.
“I can only say that we have set our own goals for the power unit based on experience and what we think is necessary to be successful in 2026,” he said.
“We have no idea where the competition stands and what their development curve is, we simply do not have a direct comparison with our opponents, but if we look at what we think we need have to be successful, then we are in good shape.”
Max Verstappen has Red Bull exit clause ahead of 2026
If Red Bull struggle to adapt to F1’s new era, then it could be doubly significant. On one level, it would alter the competitive picture at the front of the grid.
And on another, it would potentially prompt Verstappen to leave the team. The Dutchman is under contract until the end of 2028, but that deal isn’t watertight.
Indeed, one clause allows him to make an exit if he’s not satisfied with their first crack at the 2026 regulations. As his former trainer says, he’ll only move on if he feels he has a better chance of winning elsewhere.
Crucially, Red Bull will have to navigate the rule change without one of F1’s greatest designers in Adrian Newey. Newey officially handed in his resignation ahead of the Miami GP.
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