Max Verstappen may have a contract with Red Bull Racing until the end of 2028, but he still holds the key to this season’s driver market.
Tensions between the Max Verstappen camp and Red Bull have increased this year, with his father Jos Verstappen unconvinced that the Austrian outfit is the best place for his son’s long-term future.
In a report from the German outlet Auto Bild, it’s been suggested that Verstappen is now more likely to join Mercedes than he was before the Monaco Grand Prix.
They describe three key reasons why the Dutchman’s confidence in Red Bull has gradually fallen in recent months and years.
That will be music to Toto Wolff’s ears as he continues to leave Lewis Hamilton’s seat unfilled after he announced he would be joining Ferrari next year.
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Chances of Max Verstappen joining Mercedes getting ‘bigger and bigger’
When the chequered flag waved on the streets of Monte Carlo, there were two teams celebrated underneath the podium – and tellingly Red Bull weren’t one of them.
Charles Leclerc delivered an emotional home victory for Ferrari and he was joined by teammate Carlos Sainz and McLaren’s Oscar Piastri on the rostrum.
Red Bull came away from the principality with just eight points to their name and a huge crash bill after Sergio Perez’s collision with both Haas drivers.
It’s been made clear over the past three race weekends that Red Bull are no longer in a league of their own at the front of the grid.
Ferrari and McLaren have closed the gap and with each passing race, it looks less and less like each step forward they’ve made is track-specific.
However, Red Bull and Verstappen are both still leading their respective championships and even if Leclerc wins in Canada and Verstappen finishes outside the top ten, the triple world champion would still be heading to Spain on top of the standings.
The issue for Verstappen is whether or not he feels Red Bull is the best place to be when the new regulations begin in 2026.
Alex Albon has admitted he signed a new deal at Williams partly because they will have Mercedes engines for the start of the new ruleset.
That may also play a part in Verstappen’s thinking and could be another way Toto Wolff may try and tempt his number one target to join the Silver Arrows.
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Three key reasons why Max Verstappen is considering a Red Bull exit
The report from Auto Bild has shared why the chances of Max Verstappen joining Mercedes next year are getting ‘bigger and bigger’.
The first reason is they believe Verstappen no longer trusts the technology that Red Bull uses and that the engineers within the team don’t take him seriously enough.
Additionally, they suggest that Red Bull’s simulator is delivering misleading data, although this has been going on for some time.
Verstappen has reportedly been complaining about this data although it’s said that technicians have been playing this down.
It should be made clear that Mercedes have also had simulator issues during this ruleset and even McLaren’s data hasn’t matched their performance, although they’ve been overperforming what they expect.
Finally, unrest within the team hasn’t helped matters within Red Bull and losing Adrian Newey is also a big blow.
Verstappen was said to be unhappy that Christian Horner criticised his error in qualifying after he hit the wall on his final run, without mentioning that Sergio Perez qualified 18.
On the surface, things might be going well at Red Bull given their position in both championships, however, it might not be a relationship that lasts forever.
Where does this leave Kimi Antonelli?
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It has to be said that it’s still quite unlikely that Max Verstappen will join Mercedes next year even if he’s unhappy with certain aspects of the Red Bull team.
However, this leaves youngster Andrea Kimi Antonelli in a precarious position as Lewis Hamilton’s most likely successor.
The 17-year-old has had a decent but not spectacular rookie campaign in F2 and has been intensely testing F1 cars behind the scenes in preparation for next year.
If Mercedes do end up hiring Verstappen, then there are still options for Antonelli on the grid, with the most obvious being at Williams.
They haven’t announced who will be in Logan Sargeant’s seat in 2025 and while Toto Wolff is currently trying to place Esteban Ocon in the team, he might change his mind if the Dutch triple world champion ends up partnering George Russell next year.
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