Ursula von der Leyen may not retain her position as the President of the European Commission as she is likely to lack sufficient support among members of the new European Parliament, informs Politico.
Politico reminds that to be re-elected as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen needs to secure the support of a qualified majority among the 27 leaders of the European Union countries during the European Council.
Subsequently, the official must garner at least 361 votes in the European Parliament out of 720 deputies. The vote will be cast by the new composition of the European Parliament. According to polls, the majority of seats - 170 - will be obtained by the European People's Party, represented by the incumbent President of the European Commission.
Politico writes that von der Leyen will need to secure the support of two other centrist factions - the Socialists and the Liberals.
According to the source, a favorable scenario for the President of the European Commission is to gain the votes of the liberal group Renew Europe, the Socialists, and the Democrats. Then she will have 390 votes.
Journalists clarify that even if party leaders instruct their members to vote for von der Leyen, there is a probability that over 10 percent of deputies will either vote against or abstain. In that case, the current President of the European Commission will receive only 351 votes, which will not be sufficient.
Last time, von der Leyen managed to secure her position, partly thanks to members of the Fidesz party of the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, and the conservative Polish party Law and Justice. This time, it is likely that members of these parties will not support her reelection, as she has criticized them harshly.
Politico writes that deputies from the Italian party Brothers of Italy, which includes Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, could influence von der Leyen's second term. However, this year the party is likely to secure only 23 seats in the European Parliament.
At the same time, the Socialists and Democrats, Renew Europe, and the Greens have promised not to support von der Leyen if she makes any deals with Meloni's deputies.
What preceded
On March 7, Ursula von der Leyen became a candidate for the position of President of the European Commission. She may remain for a second term.
Von der Leyen's candidacy was supported at the Congress of the European People's Party. She received 400 votes, with 89 delegates against.