There is an elephant in the room about imminent West Ham signing Luis Guilherme and it simply must be addressed.
Two weeks ago the vast majority of West Ham fans had never heard of Luis Guilherme.
In fact it is highly likely that most journalists covering Premier League and European football – if they’re honest – won’t have heard of the man West Ham are about to sign for around £25m either.
Of course those who are experts in South American football may well have had an idea about the clearly talented teenager.
But the sudden links to the Palmeiras talent had most Hammers fans, including yours truly, scrambling for YouTube compilations.
It’s amazing how many people are now suddenly experts on Guilherme and the Brazilian league since watching a few of those clips.
Guilherme links had fans and journalists scrambling
Supporters of a certain vintage will remember many years ago that West Ham were genuinely linked with signing a certain Neymar Junior from Santos.
Word at the time was that the Hammers were going to sign Neymar – then the up-and-coming teenage talent in Brazil – and he would essentially be parked there for Chelsea to sign him a year or two later if he fulfilled his promise.
That never happened of course and Neymar would go on to win everything in sight with Barcelona while becoming one of the best players of all time.
So there has been understandable excitement in West Ham circles about the potential arrival of Guilherme.
He has been compared to West Ham’s own Mohammed Kudus by some experts.
Some clips from YouTube certainly support that thesis.
It is felt Guilherme might be coming in as the eventual successor to Kudus with word that he’ll be off next summer if – or likely when – an elite club triggers his £85m release clause.
If that is the case then West Ham and technical director Tim Steidten should be roundly applauded by fans.
Isn’t this what West Ham fans have wanted?
Hammers supporters have watched other clubs across Europe identify and sign top young talent before anyone else before selling them on after a period for a vast profit.
That money then reinvested in the next big thing, usually before the player they’re signed to replace has been sold.
Not only does that keep the cost of the replacement down – because clubs don’t know you’ve got £85m burning a hole in your pocket – but it also gives the new signing the chance to bed in ahead of stepping up to the vacated role.
That will clearly be the hope for Guilherme, who has – reportedly – been released for his medical in east London.
There have been some concerns about bringing a young boy straight into the Premier League from Brazil, though.
For every Brazilian superstar like Neymar, though, there are 20 flops who never make it after taking the plunge of moving to Europe.
There was a time when Brazilian players would go to Russia, Ukraine, Holland and Portugal first as a testing ground before a club from one of the major leagues would take a chance on them.
Steidten and West Ham are cutting out the middle man with this move. And at a reported £25m, there is a certain amount of risk attached.
Elephant in the room about Guilherme
The elephant in the room about imminent West Ham signing Guilherme must be discussed.
The Hammers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t with their clear plan to try and exploit value for money in the Brazilian market.
When Steidten had a deal lined up for 28-year-old defender Fabricio Bruno of Flamengo questions were raised about his age.
Many asked why, if Bruno was so good, had he never been signed by a top European club. It was a valid question.
But you can’t have it both ways, arguing Guilherme is too young and Bruno too old.
West Ham fans should trust Steidten given what he did last summer and at Bayer Leverkusen.
There is no hiding the fact certain red flags are raised regarding Guilherme, though.
One should always be wary when young South Americans are dubbed the ‘new Pele, R9, Maradona or Messi’.
Because they rarely end up being anything close to those lofty comparisons.
Other than being likened to Kudus, Guilherme has been dubbed the ‘new Ronaldinho’.
New Ronaldinho? The stats don’t stack up
So let’s work with that as a basis for analysing what is, on the face of it at least, an exciting West Ham move.
When Ronaldinho came into the Gremio team as a 17-year-old, he scored six goals in his first 38 games back in 1998.
His second season as an 18-year-old he scored 22 in 47 and then 28 in 37 the next. When he added two goals in the first three games of his fourth season PSG had seen enough and came in to sign him for £3m.
Of course football transfer fees have inflated beyond all recognition in the 23 years since that deal.
But West Ham are about to pay £25m for Guilherme, who has been dubbed the new Ronaldinho.
So what do his statistics say?
This is where Steidten is seriously putting his neck on the line.
Guilherme played 19 times in his debut season for Palmeiras last year. Four of those were starts and 15 off the bench. He registered no assists and no goals in his 566 minutes.
This season he has made five appearances for Palmeiras – just one of those as a starter.
And the incoming West Ham signing has laid on one assist.
A risk worth taking?
Records of assists were not kept back when Ronaldinho was coming through.
But looking at his goal record you can bet your bottom dollar there were a fair few assists to go with the 58 goals he’d notched.
It’s a stark difference.
But even taking the rather unfair Ronaldinho comparison out of the equation, the cold hard facts are that West Ham are about to spend £25m on a supposedly coveted attacking player who has registered just one assist and no goals in 24 appearances.
Of course Steidten’s argument will be that he is trusting his scouting and instincts to land Guilherme before other clubs get the chance or realise how good he is.
That’s the name of the game. And he’ll obviously need to get more of those right than he gets wrong if he is to maintain and enhance his reputation.
West Ham fans should be going into this with their eyes wide open, though.
The club are signing raw potential here with Guilherme. His stats and some questionable YouTube compilations tell you that.
So it is only fair on the player and Steidten that there is a large dose of reality surrounding this intriguing capture.