If there’s one thing that’s certain when it comes to general elections, it’s that Tunbridge Wells has been a Tory stronghold.
Conservative Greg Clark has been its MP since 2005 – marking 19 years as its representative in Westminster.
Even during Labour’s 1997 landslide victory, the constituency stayed blue. However, the status quo could be set to change.
Last month, Mr Clark confirmed he would not stand in the forthcoming election.
He’s one of more than 75 Conservatives who have opted not to seek re-election, which beats the 1997 record.
Businessman and Oxford graduate, Neil Mahapatra, is to the new Tory candidate.
The others are Hugo Pound (Labour), Mike Martin (Lib Dem), John Hurst (Green), John Gager (Reform UK) and Hassan Kassem (Independent).
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The Tunbridge Wells constituency is now a top target for the Liberal Democrats and Mr Martin has been tipped by Electoral Calculus to win.
At the time of writing, the election prediction service had the Lib Dems pipping the Conservatives with Labour in third.
In 2019, the Conservatives in Tunbridge Wells received a 55.1% share of the vote, with 30,119 votes cast.
Mr Clark won with a majority of nearly 15,000.
Lib Dem Ben Chapelard was second, with a 28.3% share and 15,474 votes.
The Tunbridge Wells constituency is largely rural and is made up of wards such as Cranbrook, Sissinghurst and Frittenden, Paddock Wood, Pantiles and Sherwood.
Recent local elections may provide a glimpse into the current thoughts of the electorate.
In last month’s borough election campaign, the Liberal Democrats won 22 seats and took overall control of Tunbridge Wells council for the first time in almost 30 years.
The Conservatives won just seven seats while Labour claimed five.
According to the council, in its financial report of 2022/23 there were an estimated 115,300 residents with around 50% living in the town of Tunbridge Wells.
The rest are divided between the larger towns of Cranbrook, Paddock Wood and Southborough and the surrounding villages.
According to latest Index of Multiple Deprivation report, conducted in 2019, Tunbridge Wells continues to rank as the least deprived local authority in Kent.
Concerns for those in Tunbridge Wells include balancing the need for affordable housing with the preservation of green belt land.
Other priorities include improved public transport links in its more rural areas and better access to healthcare services, with a reduction in waiting times.
Despite this, on election day much of the votes cast will be made based of how parties propose to deal with major national issues, such as the cost-of-living crisis, migration, NHS funding and national security.
While the Lib Dems increased their number of seats in this year’s local election, this has historically not translated over into the national election.
Looking back at previous general elections, in Tunbridge Wells the Liberal Democrats and Labour have routinely swapped positions for second and third place.
While it remains to be seen who emerges as the frontrunner, political analysis rules out any chance of a strong Tory majority victory.
The candidates
