The 2024 season features a new dawn for the Denver Broncos as a franchise, however, the NFL Network is projecting a down year on the field.
The Broncos were one of five teams to take a quarterback in the top 12 of the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting Oregon’s Bo Nix at No. 12 after giving up on Russell Wilson. However, there’s not a ton of optimism for immediate success with the rookie taking snaps.
NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund got cracking to breakdown the expected win total for each NFL team and had the Broncos coming in under their Vegas over/under of six wins with just 5.7 wins. In Frelund’s eyes, the start of the schedule does Denver no favors.
“The Broncos’ first five opponents — all either known for their defenses or for having defensive-minded head coaches — are far from the ideal matchups for a rookie QB,” she writes.
Frelund’s idea of a silver lining is the fact that Nix won’t know what life’s like to face an easy schedule since Denver’s slate features an onslaught of challenging defenses throughout the season.
“But maybe it’s a positive thing that Bo Nix, should Sean Payton name him the starter, won’t know anything else for comparison? At Seattle, against Pittsburgh, at Tampa, at the Jets, versus Vegas — talk about a warm welcome to the NFL. Then in Weeks 9 and 10, the Broncos travel to Baltimore and Kansas City. That is some tough sledding to start a career.”
Plus, you’re facing Vegas and the Chiefs twice, as well as Jim Harbaugh’s new team in LA with Justin Herbert. Unless Nix comes out gangbusters once hitting the NFL, it’s just hard to project Denver to be much of a factor in the AFC playoff race — and Cynthia Frelund is certainly not expecting that, given her prediction of five and seventh-tenths wins total.
As part of her detailed breakdown of each NFL team’s projected win total all the way down to the hundredth’s place, Frelund also listed some topical betting lines for each team. Here is the Broncos’ standing as a threat per Vegas.
- Win Total: under 6.0 (-135)
- Make Playoffs: +475
- Win Division: +1600
- Win Conference: +6000
- Win Super Bowl: +10000
Overall, Denver is among the lowest in the NFL in terms of win total over/under, and they came in with the second-lowest number in the league per Frelund’s measurement, only surpassing the Patriots.
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