The influx of Western ammunition has eased Kyiv's shortage of artillery shells, but Russian forces are still gaining ground along the front line and are likely to continue doing so throughout the summer, journalists report. They believe the Russian advance will be facilitated by dry weather and longer days.
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The article explains that while Western ammunition and weapons are being transported to the front, Kyiv has adopted a "bend-but-don’t-break" strategy. Ukrainian military commanders, soldiers, officers, and analysts say that by ceding some territory, Ukraine has been able to fight from better-protected positions.
"It will take weeks, if not months, for Ukraine to fully replenish its depleted stocks" of ammunition, according to the AP.
"It takes time to load ships that must then cross the Atlantic," Ukraine's First Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk told the AP. "But we’re already seeing the results. Russia’s artillery advantage was 7-to-1 at the start of the year, but it's down to 5-to-1 now."
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He also noted that Ukraine needs at least 130 F-16 fighter jets to neutralize Russian aircraft, which he expects to arrive later this year and early next year.
Ivan Sekach, a spokesman for the 110th Brigade fighting near Ocheretyne, told reporters that new shells started arriving less than a month ago. The new arrivals have increased the unit's stockpile by 75% compared to last winter when supplies were so low that the military had to retreat to save soldiers' lives. However, the shells received are not enough to deter Russia's advance and often are not the large calibers that are most needed, he said.
"We need four times this amount to operate without counting each shell and prioritizing what to hit," the spokesman stated.
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Oleksandr, a deputy battalion commander with the 47th Brigade, who spoke on condition that only his first name be used in accordance with his unit's protocols, said the brigade needs more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.
"We can’t take all the ammunition our partners give us at once — we receive it in portions. And right now, we can’t accumulate what we need," said Oleksandr, whose brigade is fighting on the outskirts of Avdiivka.
"Time is in favor of Ukraine and thus the rationale of an elastic band: You can cede a little territory and gain a little time," said Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst at the IHS Jane's military intelligence research center. "And then by the end of this year, Ukraine will have advantages that it’s never had before."
This approach differs from the nine-month battle for Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops suffered heavy losses in a futile effort to hold on, AP notes. Sekach argued that flexibility helped Ukrainian forces withstand the Russian offensive. "We had to spread out our positions and our logistics, too. We are doing it a lot smarter now," he said.
The article mentions that Ukrainian commanders complain about dense jamming by Russian electronic warfare along the front line, which has reduced the effectiveness of Ukrainian attack drones, and poor communication between Ukrainian electronic warfare units and drones. "The Russians will definitely continue to have minor successes in the next while," Sekach said.
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Commanders told the AP that Russia is attacking Ukrainian supply lines more, and it is having an effect. "They understand that we are supplied with new aid and they have increased their drone strikes, and it influences our logistics," said Ninja, a soldier with the 28th Brigade in Bakhmut, who spoke using his call sign. He said the attacks were so frequent that drivers had to constantly change their schedules. "You need to know the road perfectly, every crater, to allow a driver with night vision to drive quickly, come in, unload and get out," he said.
Ordinary trucks can be used to deliver ammunition to other combat zones, but armored vehicles, well-designed routes, and drones are needed in the Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka areas, the article notes. "Now the delivery is significantly complicated, we are forced to use drones," said Oleksandr. “If before armored vehicles would deliver ammunition two or three times per day, now they generally do so only once a day.”
Ukrainian commanders also told the AP that Russia has become more accurate in striking between rotations when defense lines are weakest. One unit in the Chasiv Yar area reported that a quarter of its losses were due to the transportation of troops to and from the front lines, the article said.
It is impossible to disguise troop movements, especially large ones, because of Russian drones, according to the commander of the Kotyky unit with the call sign Tor, who is fighting in Chasiv Yar. "All day and night, they are flying in the sky and observing us. It’s impossible to move without being seen," he said. Tor also said that his soldiers have nowhere to hide and are changing positions because of the constant Russian bombardment. Often they have to run half a kilometer or more to find shelter. "When you’re in a basement, you’re safe," he said. "The minute you come up, you become an easy target."
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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
Section: Nation
Author: Богуслав Романенко
