The 2024 Formula 1 season has turned into a slow burner. It took a while before the teams caught up to Red Bull, but now we face the prospect of four teams in the hunt for a title.
The Circuit de Barcelona Catalunya should provide the ideal acid test to see whether Red Bull can reassert its dominance, as it should be the track that suits them most out of the last few races.
McLaren and Ferrari have provided the main gains in performance since introducing upgrade packages in Miami and Imola, while Mercedes joined in after optimising its updates in Canada.
The result means Verstappen’s win margins are smaller. Whereas he was comfortably 25 seconds ahead of the next non-Red Bull car in Bahrain, the converging field has seen that decrease to an average of three seconds in his last two race victories.
Red Bull expected convergence, but can it stay ahead?
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner expected to see a convergence in the field as more teams started to adopt similar design concepts to the RB20.
The RB20 is a much more aggressive take on the regulations compared to the RB19, a direction Verstappen is proud the team went in to ensure they kept their advantage over the winter.
It has proven itself to be a worthy design direction for the team, as it has consistently given Verstappen that extra few-tenths he needs in crucial moments.
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The last three races have exposed an Achilles heel already known within the team and among F1 designers, hence trying to rush as many new parts to the car as possible in the Miami/Imola timeframe. Ever since the RB18, Red Bull’s cars have struggled on the technical circuits with lots of bumps and kerbs.
Imola showed signs of that weakness, while it reached its peak in Monaco where the team had to make severe compromises to the ride height to prevent a risk of either driver crashing. Verstappen remarked that it left them “exposed” in what was a similar scenario to their race in Singapore last year.
The team is in the rather compromising position of being unable to run their suspension too soft without haemorrhaging critical downforce. The rear suspension and underfloor are key to Red Bull’s advantage in this ground effect era, and the team is having to battle with both roll and vertical stiffness to prevent them from losing aerodynamic performance.
Aerodynamics on an F1 car requires it to be as stable as possible to work properly, which means running stiff suspension. Drivers like softer suspension to be able to rotate a car through a corner, and practice sessions are all about finding that compromise.
In Monaco the team went with a stiffer suspension to combat the problem, but it was at the expense of raw performance as neither driver could ride the kerbs as well as the Ferrari or McLaren. Verstappen is insistent that, while the problem cannot be cured, it will leave Red Bull more exposed at certain tracks compared to others.
Triple header to test Red Bull’s true advantage
The next wave of circuits will be much more suited to Red Bull’s aerodynamic platform. High-speed changes of direction at Barcelona and Silverstone, while the Red Bull Ring in Austria provides undulation and long straights that cater to their inherent straight-line speed advantage.
It will expose just how much work Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes must do to keep their title chances alive during these critical European races.
McLaren appears to have the most consistent challenger having scored an average of 28 points in the last five races. The MCL38 should also be the strongest on paper out of the Red Bull challengers, although a lot of that performance has come from unlocking it in the low-speed corners.
Ferrari’s nightmare weekend in Canada showed just how much car setup plays a key role in their weekends. After looking like a rejuvenated outfit at the start of the season, it resembled its former self in Montreal and gave way to the ‘clown pit wall’ meme.
It is likely to be a one-off for the team considering their form elsewhere, plus the changing conditions played a massive role in their fortunes. Ferrari will want to continue its upward trajectory off the back of wins in Monaco and across their motorsport division at Le Mans.
Out of the three challengers, Mercedes is facing the biggest weekend. Technical director James Allison believes they have truly figured out a fundamental problem with their car, and they will be looking for that to be confirmed at Barcelona.
We start the European triple header with Verstappen holding a 56-point advantage over Charles Leclerc and Red Bull 49 points ahead of Ferrari. Wonder what that will be in three weeks time?
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