By Ben Aris in Vienna
Kyrgyzstan is aiming for a wide-ranging rejuvenation of its worn-out power infrastructure. In addition to the grand plans to build the $5bn flagship Kambarata-1 hydropower plant (Kambarata-1 HPP), the small Central Asian nation is planning a dozen smaller HPPs that will double its installed generating capacity to 10GW in the coming years and could collectively generate 80GW by 2027, the government said at the Kyrgyz Republic Energy Forum (KREF) in Vienna on June 10.
Today, Kyrgyzstan has 3.9GW of power output, of which 80% is hydropower. A mountainous country with over 45,000 kilometres (27,960 miles) of rivers, it has barely scratched at the surface of its hydropower potential, according to experts at the World Bank, who estimate the republic could increase its HPP generation output 25-fold.
Kambarata-1 will add 1.8GW to the country’s installed capacity when complete, but the World Bank estimates the country needs to generate 10GW by 2030 if it is to continue to facilitate its current strong economic growth of 7-8% a year.
To this end, Kyrgyzstan intends to invest an additional $11bn in the series of smaller projects as part of the National Energy Programme to 2035 that will provide power to the whole country. The government is also specifically looking at HPPs that will enable power exports to neighbours Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as well as eventually feed the $1.2bnCASA-1000 transmission line that will export electricity out of Central Asia via Afghanistan to Pakistan and further into South Asia. The World Bank signed off on restarting the stalled CASA-1000 power initiative in February.
Amongst projects are the 21-MW Balasaryu HPP at Kirov reservoir, scheduled for commissioning this year. This will be followed by Orto-Tokoy reservoir HPP. It also boasts a generation capacity of 21 MW, but is set to be commissioned in 2026. Kara-Kul HPP, with 18 MW, and Papan HPP, with 20 MW, are expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Kyrgyzstan's total hydroelectric resources are substantial, amounting to an estimated 245.2bn kWh, of which the technically exploitable potential is 142.5bn kWh, according to the Institute of Water Issues and Hydropower of the National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan.
The key river basins include Naryn (36% of the republic’s water), Fergana Valley (27%), Sary-Jaz (10.7%) and Chuy (9%).
The Naryn River basin is particularly promising. It is home to Kambarata-1, but has a total potential generating capacity of 6.9GW.
The Sary-Jaz River basin has a potential capacity of 993 MW.
You can find all the KGEF presentations here.
