Analysis of the General Election exit poll suggests the Liberal Democrats are very likely to gain the South Cambridgeshire seat from the Conservatives tonight.
With the result not expected until 4am, it will be a nerve-wracking few hours for the candidates.
But Pippa Heylings, the Lib Dem candidate, will be buoyed by analysis from the exit poll, as it suggests a 99 per cent probability that she will beat the Conservatives’ Chris Carter-Chapman to the seat.
Nationally, the exit poll is suggesting a Labour landslide, with Sir Keir Starmer set to head to No 10 with a majority of around 170 seats.
Locally, it suggests St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire is too close to call, although Ian Sollom for the Lib Dems appears more likely (74 per cent) to win it than Conservative Anthony Browne (25 per cent), who switched to the new seat from South Cambridgeshire.
It could be tighter still in the revised seat of Ely and East Cambridgeshire though, where Lucy Frazer, who has been serving as culture secretary in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet, is given a 49 per cent chance of holding it for the Tories, compared to 51 per cent for Charlotte Cane gaining it for the Lib Dems.
The exit poll suggests the Tories are likely to hold Huntingdon (91 per cent), while North West Cambridgeshire is too close to call, although the Tories are given a 74 per cent chance of holding it, with a 26 per cent chance of a Labour gain.
In North East Cambridgeshire, Reform is given a 22 per cent chance of winning the seat from the Conservatives’ Steve Barclay, who previously served as the Brexit secretary, although the Tories are more likely (64 per cent) to hold it.
Labour are 99 per cent likely to gain the Peterborough seat from the Tories, the exit poll suggests.
So what of Cambridge? There appears serious doubt about the exit poll’s prediction here. It suggests it’s too close to call, with the Lib Dems’ Cheney Payne given a 51 per cent chance of winning the seat from Labour’s Daniel Zeichner, who is given a 49 per cent chance of holding it.
However, as our political commentator Phil Rodgers put it: “I wouldn't get too excited about this - Labour will certainly hold Cambridge with a large majority.”
So the exit poll needs treating with a pinch of salt, but the Lib Dems will be hoping they will be gaining a seat or two here.
Nationally, the exit poll predicts:
Labour: 410 seats (+209)
Conservatives: 131 seats (-241)
Liberal Democrats: 61 seats (+53)
Reform UK: 13 (+13)
SNP: 10 (-38)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (-2)
Green: 2 (+1)
Follow our live blog for more analysis through the night.
We’ve got reporters at the counts for Cambridge, South Cambridgeshire, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, and Ely and East Cambridgeshire, and we’ll be keeping an eye on counts around the county.
