A week after former President Donald Trump secured victory in South Carolina’s Republican primary, defeating Nikki Haley in her home state, attention turns to the implications leading up to Super Tuesday on March 5, 2024.
Despite her defeat, Haley remains committed to her campaign, expressing doubts about Trump’s ability to defeat Biden in the November 2024 election. The question now looms: Can she effectively challenge him?
“Our country will fall apart if we make the wrong choices. This has never been about me or my political future. We need to beat Joe Biden in November,” Hayley said. “I don’t believe Donald Trump can beat Joe Biden.”
The victory in South Carolina bodes well for the former president, aligning with historical trends where successful Republican candidates in the state, such as Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Trump himself in 2016, have proceeded to secure the party’s nomination.
“I have never seen the Republican Party so unified as it is right now,” said Trump.
Trump has won six straight Republican Primaries after his Michigan win on Tuesday, beating out Hayley.
“We win Michigan, we win the whole thing,” said Trump to supporters at the Michigan GOP watch party.
With Super Tuesday looming on March 5th, Republicans across 15 states and one territory will participate in primaries and caucuses, marking a significant juncture in the nomination process. Given Haley’s inability to secure victory in her home state, the outcomes of Super Tuesday are anticipated to be unfavorable for her campaign.
Let’s examine how South Carolina influences the outcomes of Super Tuesday.
1. Hayley doesn’t have path to win the Republican primaries
This can spell trouble for Hayley’s political future. In South Carolina, where Hayley has previously won two terms as governor, now nearly half of South Carolina voters have an unfavorable opinion of her. Losing a home state would lead many politicians to end their campaign, considering no major-party nominee since 1972 has lost their home state.
The viability of Hayley as the winning GOP candidate is dissipating, which points to Trump being the candidate to go against Biden in the 2024 presidential election, even though he faces 91 felony charges in four criminal cases.
“America will come apart if we make the wrong choices. This has never been about me or my political future,” said Haley. “I am a woman of my word. I’m not giving up this fight.”
2. Will Trump’s criminal cases shift the vote?
We are at an unprecedented crossroads in American history, as the potential victor of the GOP party could be found guilty on a number of charges. Trump could possibly pardon himself in the Federal Election Interference in the Washington DC case and The Classified Documents Case in Florida, but this still leaves the state trials, which cast a light of uncertainty on Trump’s potential 2024 presidency.
This begs the question whether Americans will want to vote on a presidential candidate who is facing criminal charges. According to a recent NBC poll, if the election for president were held today with Biden as the Democratic candidate and Trump as the Republican candidate, 41% of Americans would vote for Trump compared to Biden’s 35%. Making the point that a portion of Americans may not care about his criminal charges. If the former president does win, we are unsure what will happen?
Trump continues to argue that he has immunity for his action as president making these cases moot. As of now, judges have ruled against his wishes, which may lead to a Supreme Court decision on the matter. Since Trump appointed three of the nine justices, and a majority of the justices on the bench align with conservative views could spell a victory for Trump’s immunity claims.
3. The rift in the Republican Party
Republicans seem to be split on whether they would continue to support Trump if he were to be convicted on federal crimes.
Representative Ken Buck, R-Colo. said Trump being convicted would be a deal breaker.
“I certainly won’t support a convicted felon for the White House,” Buck said on CNN.
Other Republicans such as Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee said it would depend on the circumstances.
“No. Honestly, on the surface, I wouldn’t. It doesn’t look good,” Burchett said. “But let’s see what the conviction says. Let’s see if he is convicted.”
Freedom Caucus members continue to support Trump regardless of the charges, such as Representative Bob Good, R-Va.
“I will support whomever our nominee is. And this is a ridiculous, politically motivated attack on President Trump that is relentless and has been relentless for the last seven or eight years,” said Good.
This split among Republicans can be seen in the two Republicans former Representative Liz Cheny and Senator Mitt Romney voted to impeach Trump and the impeachment of Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.
4. Tim Scott as the potential Trump VP pick
Following the South Carolina primary, former president Trump and Tim Scott’s relationship noticeably developed. The senator on the US Capitol joined Trump at Rock Hill and at the Black Conservative Federation in Columbia, causing speculation first reported by The Pavlovic Today whether Trump will tap Scott to be his VP.
Prior to the South Carolina Primary, he voiced the Trump campaign ad attacking Haley, showing Scott’s alignment with the former president.
Ever since Scott suspended his 2024 presidential campaign he’s become a key Trump surrogate, which the former president has acknowledged.
“He’s the greatest surrogate I’ve ever seen,” Trump said at the rally in Rock Hill. “He’s a much better representative for me than he is a representative for himself.”
