West Ham and Spurs are having good Premier League seasons but analysts suggest both could well be in false positions.
Fans and the media have been waxing lyrical about Tottenham Hotspur’s style of play under Ange Postecoglou.
It’s probably fair to say that for David Moyes the opposite is true at West Ham.
That’s despite the rivals being separated by just two places in the Premier League table ahead of their big clash at the London Stadium.
Spurs and West Ham both in false positions say analysts
Postecoglou has managed to marry style with enough substance to get Spurs into fifth place ahead of the run-in, just three points off fourth-placed Villa with a game in hand.
At West Ham the perception is that Moyes is always substance over style.
But whatever your opinion, the Hammers do sit seventh, which will be rewarded with a fourth consecutive European campaign if they can hang in there.
With the Holy Trinity of Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus purring right now, West Ham are dangerous in attack. The problem is they dangerously bad at the back at times.
Spurs have thrown a few horror shows in this season – including the recent 3-0 defeat at Fulham which could have been by more.
Now top analysts have made a revelation that West Ham and Spurs are in false positions in the Premier League.
Spurs and Hammers in top four – of overperformers
WhoScored, the world’s biggest football data analysts, are powered by Opta. And they have produced a graph showing which Premier League teams are overperforming and underperforming the most this season.
Spurs are SECOND in that particular table closely followed by West Ham in FOURTH.
The graph has been intricately produced by analysing each team’s Goal Difference and Expected Goal Difference.
Going into the derby between the two sides, Tottenham are over 11 goals better off than their expected goal difference and West Ham are 10 goals better off than theirs.
Fulham lead the way by being over 13 up on their XGD while Villa are third and over 10 better off than theirs.
It essentially shows that West Ham and Tottenham have got away with a number of results this season.
And if fans of both clubs are honest with themselves that sounds about right.
There have been several games West Ham have won – such as Chelsea at home, Brighton away, Tottenham and Arsenal away – where the opposition have had more shots, chances and as a result a higher Expected Goals.
Two teams bailed out by their attacks and goalkeepers
Spurs have got themselves off the hook on several occasions too.
Both clubs are being bailed out by the superior section of their teams – the attack and goalkeepers.
Alphonse Areola is enjoying a superb season for the Hammers. Meanwhile Guglielmo Vicario has really impressed overall during his debut campaign in English football.
Love it or hate it, Expected Goals is the new gold standard for football data and it’s here to stay.
The video below explains exactly how it works.