The battle for an extra Champions League place is on, with Tottenham amongst the teams eagerly awaiting the outcome.
Tottenham are nearing the end of their first Premier League season under new manager Ange Postecoglou. It has been a mixed campaign at times, but one that has seen exciting football and some improvement on the pitch.
The aim between now and the final kick of the season will be a top-four finish, guaranteeing a return to the Champions League. Spurs currently sit fifth in the table, knowing they will have to leapfrog Aston Villa in the coming weeks.
Some tough fixtures are ahead, which will require some top performances to overcome and earn fourth.
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Should they fail to do that, there is still a chance that fifth place in the Premier League could earn the team a spot in the Champions League. It’s based on the coefficients of each division and how they perform in European competitions.
The top two leagues will receive an extra place for next season. So with that said, here’s a look at the race for the fifth Champions League place.
Champions League fifth place latest
As things stand, Italy are set to receive an extra place in the Champions League, with a coefficient points tally of 18.4. There are still four Serie A sides in European competitions, with AC Milan, AS Roma and Atalanta in the Europa League and Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League.
Germany are second, with 17.6 coefficient points, with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund still in the Champions League and Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League. It leaves England in third, with 16.9 points, at risk of missing out.
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The Premier League were handed a double blow with both Arsenal and Manchester City being knocked out of the Champions League. Liverpool and West Ham remain in the Europa League, but both trail heading into their respective second legs.
Aston Villa remain the best hope of progressing, with a lead against LOSC Lille in the Europa Conference League. However, it is looking increasingly likely that the extra place will go to Italy and Germany.
Supercomputer predicts fifth Champions League place
Opta Analyst have run the numbers through their prediction model, which gives the chances of each league earning the required coefficient points. As it stands, Italy are given a nearly 100% chance of landing the first extra place.
Then, after the latest swing in results, Germany have jumped up to being at 93.4% – up from 41.8% the week before. It demonstrates a huge shift, with England now only given a 6.2% chance of landing a fifth Champions League place.
It means a lot will be required for the Premier League to turn things around in their favour.
Ange Postecoglou Champions League claim
Despite the clamour to make the Champions League, Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou is rather relaxed about the prospect. Taking a wider view of things, he said back in March: “It’s not, actually [that important]. What’s more important is that come the end of this year, we’ve got a team that’s going to challenge the following year and keep growing.
“Right now, the most important thing is us, our identity and our football, because… mate, it’s not a Willy Wonka golden ticket, you know? It just gets you a year in the Champions League. But if you don’t build on that or grow from that, it is meaningless – I think, anyway.
“Because we’re not in it for participation. We’re in it to win things. Yes, if we make Champions League this year it means we’ve progressed from last year. But has our football progressed? Are we a better team? Are we a stronger team?”
It shows a new approach to the Tottenham project, attempting to build something long-term rather than taking short-term shortcuts. Whether that means Champions League qualification or not, focusing on improving is key for Spurs.