A 12-team version of the College Football Playoff will allow chances for more teams to win the national title. However, that accessibility won’t necessarily lead to success for all of those in the field according to Greg McElroy.
McElroy answered a question about potential Cinderellas in the playoff during a recent episode of ‘Always College Football’. As for his response, it’s not a certain one yet without any data to show for this new format yet
“I think it’s a fantastic question and it’s one that, honestly, I don’t know the answer to just yet,” McElroy admitted.
The basis of his argument that followed came down to the varying levels of teams in the playoff. While multiple teams can now make a case to make it in within a dozen spots, only a select few are of a caliber that can actually win the national title.
“Now, here’s the challenge. I think there’s a huge difference in being able to get to the playoff versus being able to win the national championship,” said McElroy. :Let’s think about this – how many teams in the sport, say 130 teams or so, whatever number we’re out right now. We’re expanding rapidly at the FBS level. How many teams do you think can beat Ohio State? How many teams do you think can beat Georgia? Or ‘Bama or any of these teams?”
That thought played out over the course of the 10-year history of the four-team playoff. 15 programs earned berths in that time with seven of those only making one appearance. Of those 10 titles, seven of them have gone to three teams in Alabama with a trio and then Georgia and Clemson with a pair.
That wouldn’t suggest a trend of parity, which McElroy proved by looking back at the previous format himself.
“We looked at the playoff era. We knew that Oklahoma could get to the playoff. But, when they got there, it wasn’t going to end very well for the Sooners. Now, 2017 was probably their best year – gave Georgia all they wanted there in the Rose Bowl, almost beat them, lost in overtime. Had they won, would they have beaten ‘Bama for the national championship? Perhaps – I don’t know. But that’s one of the examples of a team that could get there but could they get over the hump and ultimately win the whole dang thing?” McElroy said. “We’ve seen Notre Dame get there a couple times. We know they can get there but could they win it? Those are the questions that I’m really curious about.”
“When we talk about how many teams can beat Georgia, how many teams can beat Ohio State, how many teams can beat Michigan in the last couple years? Sure, yeah. TCU can beat Michigan. We saw it just a couple years ago. But can they beat them two times in 11 days? Or however many days are between the semifinals and the national championship? The answer was no,” McElroy explained. “Had Michigan beaten TCU, would they have stood a better chance to play Georgia? Absolutely. They would have matched up much, much better.”
McElroy also made his point by using a comparable example in the NCAA Tournament. While March Madness is known for its underdogs, it’s the usual, top-ranked seeds that win the championship more often than not.
“We see it in basketball now. We’ve seen teams knock off other teams – 13-seeds beat fours, 15s beat twos, 16s beat ones twice. We’ve seen that happen in basketball,” said McElroy. “Well, how often do we see a 15-seed, a 13-seed, or an 11-seed make it to the national championship and ultimately cut down the nets? That’d be zero times.”
“When you start to fast forward into the Final Four in hoops, you don’t see a whole lot of teams that are able to consistently put it all together,” McElroy said. “Football? The rosters are deeper so I think it’s only going to be more difficult.”
College football may have some more contenders emerge in this new era of the playoff. It’s just not as likely to McElroy, especially as it begins over the next few falls.
“Personal opinion? I don’t think there’s very many teams that can beat Ohio State. Let’s say 10, 15, 20 teams in the country that could beat Ohio State one time. How many teams can beat a team of that quality twice? Or, even taking it a step further, three times? Or, you want to take it a whole ‘nother step because there’s four rounds of the playoffs, can beat that team four times over the course of a month? I don’t think there’s very many,” McElroy said. “While access is available to everybody, we’re not going to have much parity when you get to the final four, when you get to the national championship.”
“I think we’re going to see a lot of chalk when you get into the later rounds of the playoffs,” said McElroy. “Maybe, in time, the talent will spread out but, here in the first few years of the 12-team playoff, I would anticipate it being very, very chalky there at the top for the national title.”
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