The first debate between President Joe Biden and former President is less than three weeks away, and despite independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. consistently polling in the double digits, he is currently not scheduled to participate in the CNN-hosted event.
The network, RFK Jr. says, has “rigged” the debate by creating qualifications that appear aimed at keeping him off the stage. He has even filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission, arguing that CNN colluded with the Biden and Trump campaigns to exclude Kenney — in violation of campaign finance law.
It is no secret that two of the big mainstream media outlets, CNN and MSNBC, favor Joe Biden in the election. RFK Jr. — the son of assassinated Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy — poses a direct threat to Biden.
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With Biden slightly trailing Trump in most national polls, while also lagging in some key swing states, he needs every liberal and independent vote he can get. The networks have already painted RFK Jr. as a conspiracy theory candidate with an anti-vax stance who voters should not trust.
While keeping Kennedy off the debate stage will certainly limit the reach of his message in the short term, there are potent psychological effects that could cause the move to backfire, potentially bolstering RFK Jr.’s popularity in the long run, and motivating a greater public call for him to participate in future debates.
A phenomenon known as the "Streisand Effect" occurs when attempts to suppress or censor information have the unintended consequence of drawing more attention to it.
Named after a 2003 incident in which entertainer Barbra Streisand's attempt to remove an online image of her Malibu home inadvertently drew more attention to it, the effect has since been observed in various contexts, including politics. The more that the media tries to suppress individuals such as RFK Jr., who are perceived as "going against the system," the more they inadvertently build support for them among the anti-establishment crowd.
The Streisand Effect in politics is partly explained by the phenomenon known as psychological reactance), wherein once people are aware that some information is being kept from them, they are significantly more motivated to acquire and spread it.
This stems from a feeling that one’s freedoms are being threatened, and as a consequence, the individual acts in ways to restore those freedoms. In the case of a political candidate such as RFK Jr., a lack of media coverage can trigger reactance among his supporters, who may perceive the insufficient coverage as an attempt to limit their choice of candidate.
Keeping RFK Jr. off the debate stage when he is polling so well for an independent candidate would certainly be perceived by many — including Americans merely curious about his candidacy — as such an attempt.
Moreover, the perception of unfairness and exclusion could tap into a psychological mechanism known as the underdog effect.
When people feel that powerful forces are treating an underdog unjustly, they often experience a strong emotional response that motivates them to support and defend the perceived victim.
This is partly due to the activation of the brain's limbic system, which is involved in processing emotions and generating empathy. The amygdala, in particular, has been shown to be highly responsive to perceived threats and injustices, triggering a cascade of neural and physiological responses that can promote empathetic and supportive behavior towards the underdog.
In addition, the exclusion of a candidate like RFK Jr. from the debate stage can fuel conspiracy theories and reinforce the perception that the media and the political establishment are colluding to suppress certain voices and perspectives.
This can lead to a backlash effect#:~:text=A%20backlash%20is%20a%20strong,and%20discrimination%20against%20marginalized%20groups.), where people become even more determined to support the excluded candidate as a way of resisting what they perceive as a corrupt and manipulative system. The brain's tendency to seek patterns and explanations, even in the face of incomplete or ambiguous information, can make people more susceptible to such theories, especially when they align with their existing beliefs and biases.
Ultimately, the decision to potentially exclude RFK Jr. from the upcoming presidential debate may not only fail to limit his reach and influence but could actually have the opposite effect, amplifying his anti-establishment message.
By tapping into powerful psychological mechanisms that drive human behavior and decision-making, such as the Streisand Effect, psychological reactance and the underdog effect, CNN's actions may inadvertently boost RFK Jr.'s popularity and convert some Biden supporters.
For these reasons, Biden allies should consider the relevant psychological factors when considering the potential consequences of political strategies and media coverage. For that matter, Trump should as well, given that his RFK Jr.’s anti-establishment messages sound awfully a lot like his, with Kennedy hurting Trump more than Biden in a recent poll.
As Election Day on Nov. 5 grows closer, attempts to sideline a candidate like RFK Jr. may only serve to spread his message and strengthen his appeal with voters who are disillusioned with the current political establishment.
Bobby Azarian is a cognitive neuroscientist and the author of the book The Romance of Reality: How the Universe Organizes Itself to Create Life, Consciousness, and Cosmic Complexity. He is also a blogger for Psychology Today and the creator of the Substack Road to Omega. Follow him on X and Instagram @BobbyAzarian.
