ITYT: Deep Dive – Should you put your faith into preseason models? Assessing their strengths and flaws

AUSTIN, TX - SEPTEMBER 02: Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) puts his helmet back on during warm ups before the college football game between Texas Longhorns and Rice Owls on September 2, 2023, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

On the latest episode of the Deep Dive on the Inside Texas YouTube channel, Ian Boyd and Paul Wadlington discuss the Longhorns’ recent ranking in ESPN’s Football Power Index and how much faith fans should put into advanced analytical models in the preseason.

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The video begins with Paul Watdington and Ian Boyd discussing the relevance and use of statistical models in college football, specifically focusing on ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index).

FPI is described as a predictive rating system used by ESPN to rank college football teams, taking into account various metrics such as recruiting rankings, coaching tenure, and past performance.

The hosts delve into the flaws of the FPI, including its reliance on outdated data, lack of transparency, and potential biases. They highlight the importance of understanding what FPI is and is not, particularly noting that it is not designed to predict playoff outcomes.

Several examples are given to illustrate the discrepancies and potential inaccuracies in the FPI rankings. For instance, they discuss how a team’s performance can be misrepresented due to the inclusion of historical recruiting data.

The video emphasizes the balance between statistical analysis and real-world application, noting the unpredictability and excitement of college football that models can’t fully capture.

The discussion includes mentions of other ranking systems like SP+ by Bill Connally and the challenges these models face in the era of the transfer portal.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHDDL2pvKgs&feature=youtu.be

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