The Conservatives could face losing all their Cambridgeshire seats including North East Cambridgeshire at next month’s election according to a new poll.
The survey, by respected polling firm Survation, is predicting a Labour win in the former Health Secretary Steve Barclay’s seat – for the first time in the party’s history. The Tories have held the seat, which took over from the old Isle of Ely constituency in 1973, since 1987.
Liberal Clement Freud was the MP between 1973 and 1987.
The survey predicts the Tory’s share of the vote will be more than halved while Labour’s will more than double compared to the 2019 election result.
The estimated vote share for the Conservatives is 33.3%.
In 2019 Conservative Steve Barclay enjoyed a 72.5% share of the votes cast – and had a whopping majority of almost 30,000. Labour polled just 8,430 votes to come in second place with a 15.9% share of the vote.
The Survation poll is predicting this time Labour will take 36.9% of the votes beating the Conservatives. Reform is predicted to come in third place with 17.3% of the votes. The Lib Dems will be fourth with 6.1%, the Green Party fifth with 5.2% and the remaining candidates, Workers Party of Britain and an independent taking 1% between them.
The survey predicts that all eight of Cambridgeshire’s seats will go to parties other than the Tories, they currently hold six of the existing seven. A new (eighth) constituency was created for the county in the recent shake-up by the Boundary Commission.
Labour is predicted to take the majority (six) with the Lib Dems winning the remaining two including neighbouring Ely and East Cambridgeshire.
Survation’s survey, which was published last week, is based on so-called MRP analysis, or multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis.
This is a modern modelling technique which combines very large polls with other sources of information, such as census data and local level of support for parties in the constituency.
Survation says they used MRP during the 2019 General Election to correctly predict a large Conservative majority and call 94.3% of seats correctly.
Survation is also predicted a wipe-out
SURVATION PREDICTION:
North East Cambridgeshire – Predicted winner Labour
Labour: 36.9%
Conservatives: 33.3%
Liberal Democrats: 6.1%
Green Party: 5.2%
Reform: 17.3%
Others: 1%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire – Predicted winner Lib Dem
Labour: 25.5%
Conservatives: 26.4%
Liberal Democrats: 30.7%
Green Party: 3.4%
Reform: 1.3%
Other: 6.1pc
South Cambridgeshire – Predicted winner Lib Dem
Labour: 24.3%
Conservatives: 24%
Liberal Democrats: 38.8%
Green Party: 3%
Reform: 7.4%
Other: 2.5%
Huntingdon – Predicted winner Labour
Labour: 44.5%
Conservatives: 27.1%
Liberal Democrats: 9.9%
Green Party: 4.2%
Reform: 12%
Other: 2.4%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire – Predicted winner Labour
Labour: 31.2%
Conservatives: 27.2%
Liberal Democrats: 26.5%
Green Party: 3.5%
Reform: 9.6%
Other: 1.9%
North West Cambridgeshire – Predicted winner Labour
Labour: 41.5%
Conservatives: 31.4%
Liberal Democrats: 6.9%
Green Party: 8.1%
Reform: 10.1%
Other: 2.1%
Peterborough – Predicted winner Labour
Labour: 48.3%
Conservatives: 24.7%
Liberal Democrats: 5.2%
Green Party: 4.4%
Reform: 11.9%
Other: 5.6%
Cambridge – Predicted winner Labour
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 12.4%
Liberal Democrats: 15.5%
Green Party: 8%
Reform: 3.5%
Other: 4.5%
