Dan Friedkin set for £800m Everton takeover discount as transfer budget explained

Everton are all set to have a new owner in Dan Friedkin, and the latest financial analysis suggests the American investor may have secured a bargain deal.

The Toffees officially announced on Friday (21 June) that Farhad Moshiri has entered into a period of exclusivity with Friedkin with a view to completing a long-heralded takeover deal.

The protracted takeover saga has been raging on for well over a year now and is not over yet, with the final terms and Premier League ratification still needed before it is completed.

Everton fans may point to the failure of 777 Partners to take over the club during a nine-month long period of exclusivity as a reason not to get too excited just yet.

But after years of turbulence off the pitch, no one can blame supporters for dreaming about a fresh start under a new owner.

Expert says Everton worth £1.2bn, £800m more than reported Friedkin deal

Football finance analyst and blogger Citizens of Suburbia has conducted a remarkable in-depth look at Everton’s finances and the context around Friedkin’s would-be takeover.

The report finds that Everton’s enterprise value is around £1.2bn, a figure which tallies with a number of other analyses from industry experts.

Friedkin is expected to pay £400m for Moshiri‘s 94 per cent stake in the club. On face value, that’s an £800m discount.

Of course, the true picture is a lot more complex than that. The £1.2bn figureincludes the Bramley Moore Dock development, which is not yet fully funded and will represent a cost for Friedkin.

Even so, Citizens of Suburbia suggests that that even a conservative estimate would value Everton’s equity alone after the stadium project is complete is around £580m.

As the equity value is projected to grow post-2025, the conclusion Citizens of Suburbia reaches is that Friedkin’s equity investment is viable and will sustain the club.

Everton’s 2025-30 transfer budget will be between £200m and £315m

Part of Citizens of Suburbia’s calculation was a projection that Everton’s recruitment budget for the 2025-30 period will sit somewhere between £200m and £315m.

There are a number of conditions outlined for these figures, which are a projection based on financial assumptions, albeit very well informed ones.

However, the £200-315m margin gives Everton supporters an idea of the level of spending they can expect to see under Friedkin.

They will first need to navigate their immediate issues with the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules, or PSR (formerly financial fair play, or FFP).

But it seems that the Toffees have a good chance of getting to the 30th of June PSR assessment cut-off within the three-year £105m loss limit, meaning they won’t be held to ransom for player sales.

Will Friedkin’s AS Roma ownership cause issues?

Friedkin’s involvement with Roma, who he has owned since 2020, in no way precludes him from taking over Everton.

However, there would be an issue if the two clubs were ever to qualify for the same European competition.

That will not be an immediate concern for Everton, whose sights in recent years have been set more firmly on avoiding relegation.

But it does place something of an upper limit on their ambitions given that Roma are regulars in European football.

What’s more, Italian media are reporting that Roma will take precedence in any multi-club model that Friedkin establishes.